3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/28/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Following a Chicago Cubs loss last night, the Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL Central and are set for Game 1 of the NL Wild Card (note MLB Playoff format changes) next Tuesday. Though the Brew Crew now has nothing to gain as far as regular season play is concerned, they still have four more games left on the docket before they try to make a run for the World Series.

Corbin Burnes is on the mound for Milwaukee this late afternoon opposite the St. Louis Cardinals, and he is a great strikeout under option for Thursday’s slate.

Although no official announcement has been made, Burnes is the projected Game 1 starter for Tuesday (he’s listed first on the Brewers' pitching depth chart and will have four days rest in between these games). This is excellent news when targeting his under -- the last thing Milwaukee is going to do is spread Burnes thin in a meaningless game, especially with the playoffs on the horizon.

We’ve already seen some late-season pitching hijinks from the Brewers and could be primed to see more now that their playoff spot is solidified. Last week, position player Rowdy Tellez took the mound for Milwaukee in a ninth-inning blowout, proving that manager Craig Counsell has no problem resting his arms under trivial circumstances. Look for Burnes to have a somewhat early exit that prevents him from hitting the over on this punchout total.

Though Burnes is a decent enough strikeout pitcher, boasting a 25.6% strikeout rate (16th in MLB), he is barking up the wrong tree if looking for a high-K game against the Cardinals. Despite being dead-last in the NL Central, St. Louis’ lineup isn’t exactly strikeout-prone. They boast a 21.5% strikeout rate (22nd-highest) overall, including a 19.8% strikeout rate in the last three weeks of play (24th).

Only twice in the last 15 games has a starting pitcher struck out seven-plus Cardinal batters. Further, the Cardinals' lineup is righty-dominant, and when facing righties, Burnes’ strikeout rate decreases to 22.2%.

These elements create the perfect storm for Burnes’ strikeout under to hit. If you are as high on this prop as I am, make sure to note the late-afternoon game start time: 4:10 p.m. EST.

Corey Seager To Record 2+ Bases (-110)

The Texas Rangers will end the regular season against the division rival Seattle Mariners in a series that will have a substantial bearing on the playoff landscape. Going into the night, Texas holds a 2.5-game lead in the AL West. The Lone Stars are two wins away from clinching the division and will look to come out swinging to secure their playoff spot.

The Rangers have proved they are the best offensive team in baseball not named the Atlanta Braves.

Texas owns a .457 slugging percentage (second in MLB), .312 batting average on balls in play (second), .265 overall batting average (second), and has hit 231 home runs (third).

Tonight, they will face Seattle pitcher Logan Gilbert, who has struggled in his last five starts -- posting a 4.25 ERA, .318 opposing batting average on balls in play, and surrendering five home runs. Notwithstanding, Gilbert is undoubtedly a solid pitcher, but he has clear weak spots, especially when it comes to power hitters. He’s given up 27 home runs this season (10th-most for starting pitchers) and allows a 40.6% fly-ball rate (9th).

This paves a path for the Texas power hitters to make a splash, and I have my eyes on Corey Seager to produce big numbers.

Seager has a great matchup in line opposite Gilbert. Seager’s splits against right-handed pitchers are the real deal: he boasts a .338 batting average, .668 slugging percentage, 25.2% HR/FB ratio, 52.1% hard-hit ratio, and a mere 14.8% strikeout rate against northpaws. He comes into the night with 42 doubles (2nd in MLB) and 33 home runs (16th) on the season and holds the second-best slugging percentage at .640.

His play hasn’t slowed down this month as he's mashed eight home runs and seven doubles in September. Seager has a brief-but-successful history against Gilbert. In 13 at-bats against the Mariners' pitcher, he has recorded five hits, including two doubles and one triple. Though batter-vs.-pitcher stats can be deceptive, Seager’s performance against righties and Gilbert’s propensity for permitting homers should allow the Texas stud to see some great opportunities tonight.

Jorge Soler To Hit A Home Run (+400)

The Miami Marlins are deadlocked with the Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card standings. Though the Fightin’ Fish own the tiebreaker against the Cubbies, one slip-up could end the Marlins’ season. With four regular-season games remaining for each team, they will need to exhaust all efforts to make one final push for postseason play.

I expect the Marlins to come out hot tonight against a weak New York Mets squad, and the player I’m targeting to make his mark is none other than Jorge Soler.

Soler has been a rake-machine as of late, posting a whopping .385 batting average in September. He’s hit 36 balls out of the park this year (12th in MLB) and could be primed for number 37 opposite an assailable David Peterson.

If we’re looking for Soler to hit a home run, the best place to start is to establish that he is facing a left-handed pitcher. Soler’s power numbers against lefties are lethal: he posts a 29.8% HR/FB ratio, 50.6% hard-hit rate, 58.0% fly-ball rate, .691 slugging percentage, and 180 wRC+ against southpaws this season.

Peterson, meanwhile, comes into the night off the heels of a few wretched outings. In four September starts, Peterson has posted a 5.95 ERA, .460 opposing batting average on balls in play, and has surrendered three home runs (all three to right-handed batters). This season, he has allowed a 20.0% HR/FB ratio, .467 slugging percentage, and 1.27 home runs per nine innings to righties.

The consequential game, advantageous matchup, and Soler's September numbers make the Miami slugger a great home run option for tonight’s slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.