3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 9/25/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+300)

The Houston Astros will visit the Seattle Mariners in a series that will have major bearing on the AL playoff race. As it stands, Seattle sits a half-game behind Houston for the final AL wild-card spot, and with each team’s ace on the mound in Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo, this game is an excellent preview of the high-level, high-stakes play we should expect this October.

The Astros have been a major victim of the season-end yips. After the abysmal Kansas City Royals (second-worst record in MLB) brought out the brooms this weekend, sweeping the ‘Stros in a three-game series, Houston will look to rebound tonight to save their season. I’d target Yordan Alvarez to have a big game for the Astros as they try to bounce back.

Alvarez has nasty numbers against right-handed pitchers, boasting a 186 wRC+, 47.4% hard-hit rate, 49.5% fly-ball rate, and only a 16.6% strikeout rate. Further, 23 of his 29 home runs this season have come at the hands of righties, making the matchup against Castillo an advantageous one.

Castillo, on the other hand, does not have such a fortunate stat line against left-handed hitters. Despite being a certified ace, he has struggled in the split, allowing 1.61 home runs per nine innings (as opposed to his 0.82 home runs per nine against righties) and a 50.2% fly-ball rate (as opposed to his 33.5% fly-ball rate against righties). Of the 26 homers he's given up, 18 have been at the hands of a lefty.

It would be negligent to ignore that Castillo is top-10 in the league in both ERA and strikeouts, but Alvarez is certainly the most intimidating batter he will face today. The Houston slugger has gone yard off Castillo twice in nine at-bats, and he comes in with superb numbers against righties, putting him in a great position to hit a four-bagger tonight.

Marcus Semien To Record 2+ Total Bases (-115)

Per numberFire's projections, the Texas Rangers are forecasted for 4.68 runs and 9.54 hits for tonight's game, the highest single-team totals for tonight's brief slate. They will look to amplify their 2.5-game lead in the AL West opposite a disappointing Los Angeles Angels team.

If targeting a Texas Ranger to produce big numbers against Patrick Sandoval and the Angels tonight, we should look no further than a right-handed batter. Sandoval’s struggles against righties are significant, including a .264 opposing batting average (as opposed to a .224 batting average against lefties), .319 batting average on balls in play (BABIP; .259 average against lefties), and a .329 weighted on-base average (wOBA; .264 wOBA against lefties).

The Ranger-righty I'm siding with tonight is Marcus Semien.

Semien has solid numbers against left-handed pitchers this season, posting a .351 wOBA, .331 BABIP, 122 wRC+, 47.3% fly-ball rate, and a mere 15.0% strikeout rate. He’s coming off a two-homer game from Sunday’s outing against the Mariners and has posted a month-best .966 OPS in September, so he could be primed to continue this hot streak tonight.

Semien's status as the Rangers' leadoff hitter should also help his case to make a splash tonight, as he is projected to have 4.95 plate appearances (most on tonight's slate).

Blake Snell Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-125)

The San Diego Padres will visit the San Francisco Giants for an NL West matchup, the loser of which could very well likely be subjugated to playoff elimination. Both teams sit five games back in the NL wild-card race, and with only six games left, they will need to play perfect baseball in the final week of the regular season to have any shot at the postseason.

Blake Snell will take the mound for the Padres in what is a sudden-death game for their playoff hopes (San Diego does not own the NL wild-card tiebreaker). Though the odds they see postseason baseball are slim, the Padres have proven they will go down swinging, posting a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. This, combined with Snell’s NL Cy Young hopes, will see to it that San Diego puts up a fight in tonight’s game.

Snell has put on a pitching clinic this season, averaging 11.74 strikeouts per nine innings (2nd in MLB) and a 31.7% strikeout rate (2nd). He’s been particularly unreal in September, allowing a .107 opposing batting average and a 35.4% strikeout rate. In two games against the Giants this season, Snell has punched out 19 San Francisco batters in only 12 innings.

The Giants, meanwhile, suffer from one of the worst strikeout rates in the league at 24.6% (sixth-highest). After posting a 2-8 record in the last 10 games, San Francisco has seen their October baseball chances dwindle and morale couldn’t be lower likely for this team.

Look for Snell to have a long pitch-count leash tonight due to both the Padres' playoff hopes and his own NL Cy Young award hopes. Eight strikeouts is a high bar to hit, but with a sky-high strikeout rate, proven success against the Giants, and the Padres season on the line, Snell has all the fixings to perform big in a final push for his Cy Young bid.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.