3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Thursday 6/29/23

Value is king for DFS, and finding a diamond in the rough can be the ultimate difference-maker.

Let's look at some of the top value plays for today's main slate on FanDuel, which begins at 7:07 p.m. EST.

J.D. Davis, 3B, San Francisco Giants ($2,900)

We kick things off north of the border with San Francisco Giants third baseman J.D. Davis in his matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Davis has had a productive series thus far, going three-for-seven with a run and a walk while batting third in the Giants' lineup.

Davis has been an integral part of baseball's 10th-highest-scoring offense. He sports a strong .362 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and has cut his strikeout rate down seven percentage points from last season. With his isolated power (ISO) up to its highest mark since 2019, Davis is on pace to challenge the career-high 22 HRs he set that season.

Tonight, he gets an intriguing matchup with Chris Bassitt. The righty has been incredibly inconsistent but his 4.53 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 20.5% strikeout rate shouldn't scare anyone off the Giants' hitters. Despite San Francisco holding the second-lowest implied total (4.1 runs) of the slate, the projections still see Davis making his mark.

numberFire projects J.D. Davis for 11.8 FanDuel points in Toronto, the third-best projection among sub-$3,000 players. Considering he's eclipsed 12 points in three of his last five games, Davis feels like a sneaky value play in a small Thursday slate.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies ($2,900)

Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar has quietly had a strong rookie season for the Colorado Rockies. The 21-year-old's overall slash line isn't anything special, but he's improved each month of the season -- upping his wOBA from .252 in March/April to .330 in May and now .365 in June.

While he's gotten a bit lucky this month thanks to a .375 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), both his strikeout rate (31.6% to 23.1%) and hard-hit rate (23.7% to 36.8%) have improved tremendously from the first month of the season to now.

Tovar posted 29.9 FanDuel points yesterday, going two-for-four with three RBI and two runs scored. That effort improved his hit streak to 11 games, and he's registered a base knock in 20 of 22 games this month.

The rookie should have plenty of opportunities to put up numbers tonight against Los Angeles Dodgers righty Emmet Sheehan. Sheehan allowed just two runs in his first two career starts but is due for some regression at Coors Field. The rookie sports a 5.99 SIERA, and his 67.7% flyball rate could prove disastrous at high altitudes.

Tovar, meanwhile, has thrived against right-handed pitching. His season-long wOBA against righties sits at .318 -- nearly double the .168 wOBA he's posted against lefties.

numberFire projects Tovar for 11.6 FanDuel points tonight but that could be the floor considering the Rockies have the third-highest implied team total of the slate (5.07 runs). On a shortened slate, Tovar is a great value given his low salary and strong play of late.

Tommy Pham, OF, New York Mets ($2,800)

New York Mets outfielder Tommy Pham slides into our final spot thanks to his favorable matchup and low salary tag.

The veteran righty has put together a decent season on paper, but his underlying expected stats suggest he's gotten pretty unlucky. Pham sits in the 90th percentile or higher in expected wOBA, batting average, and slugging percentage.

The tide has begun to turn this month, however. Through 21 games in June, Pham's wOBA has shot up to .407 thanks to an absurd 58.2% hard-hit rate. He's blasted 5 of his 8 homers this month, and it looks like Pham's strong statcast numbers have finally caught up with his on-field production.

Pham and the Mets get a home date with the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Although New York's implied team total of 4.81 ranks just sixth of the 10 teams in action, a matchup with Adrian Houser could bode well for Pham.

The righty Houser had been relegated to the bullpen after giving up five-plus runs in two of his final three starts against the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics. Houser's 4.85 SIERA is nothing to write home about while his measly 14% strikeout rate should mitigate Pham's own strikeout woes.

numberFire projects Pham for 12.0 FanDuel points tonight. At his $2,800 salary, that makes Tommy Pham the second-biggest value for tonight's slate and a worthy addition to any DFS lineup.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.