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3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Monday 8/7/23

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

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Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Brayan Bello, Pitcher, Boston Red Sox ($8,900)

The first full season that Brayan Bello has spent in the MLB has to be considered a successful one.

He has a solid expected FIP (xFIP) of 4.00. His high ground-ball rate of 56.2% helps him limit the damage. Bello doesn't have the best strikeout rate (20.6%), but it's reasonable enough to make him a solid option for lineups tonight.

Bello and the Boston Red Sox will face the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are the second-worst team in baseball and struggle against right-handed pitching. Their current roster has a 22.8% strikeout rate and the fourth-worst wRC+ (87) against righties.

Looking at the MLB odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Red Sox are -198 favorites to win this game. Bello should be able to give them a solid start and get the win at a salary that isn't prohibitive.

Robert Refsnyder, OF, Boston Red Sox ($2,600)

Another Red Sox player who brings value is Robert Refsnyder. He isn't the first name you think of on Boston, but he's in a good position tonight.

Refsnyder has made a career out of being a platoon outfielder who can hit lefties. He has a career .341 wOBA against southpaws. This season, that number jumps up to a staggering .413 in 103 plate appearances. He also has a .476 OBP and a 162 wRC+.

He'll likely bat leadoff tonight for Boston, the team with the highest implied total on the main slate. The Royals are sending lefty Cole Ragans to the mound. Ragans is a promising young pitcher, but his 4.53 xFIP and 11.3% walk rate don't bode well for him tonight.

Refsnyder makes plenty of sense to roster in Boston stacks or as a value one-off piece in the outfield.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,900)

Brandon Belt isn't having his best season in his first year with the Toronto Blue Jays, but he's been good enough to want him in lineups tonight.

Belt has been particularly effective when he's facing a right-handed pitcher like he is tonight. He has a .218 ISO and .368 wOBA when he has the platoon advantage. Belt also hits a lot of fly balls against righties; 48.0% of his batted balls are in the air. That will come in handy in tonight's matchup.

The Blue Jays will face Gavin Williams of the Cleveland Guardians. Williams has a 4.96 xFIP and an above-average fly-ball rate of 40.8%. It's a small sample, but lefties have roughed him up to the tune of a .356 wOBA.

Per numberFire's model, Belt is the second-best value bat and is one the best bets to hit a homer among those salaried under $3,000 on Monday's slate.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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