3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Mets at Dodgers, Game 1

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-102)

These are two of the hottest offenses in the postseason, and shaky starting pitching doesn't profile to cool them off.

The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't gotten what they hoped out of Jack Flaherty -- to say the least. Flaherty has surrendered at least three earned in every postseason start when his ERA (6.75) and skill-interactive ERA (4.67 SIERA) are a little too close for comfort. It's been the long ball to hamper the righty, permitting 3.38 HR/9 in October.

For the visitors, Kodai Senga went 2.0 innings and gave up a run in his only postseason starts thus far after having missed most of the 2024 campaign due to an elbow injury. His presence is likely more indicative of a bullpen game, yet allowing 4.50 HR/9 off that one start, it's not crazy to think L.A.'s elite offense can get to him early.

Both of these bullpens have sub-4.00 xFIPs in the postseason, so I'll play for a five and dive against these two scuffling right-handers.

Max Muncy to Record a Hit (-125)

I know the meme of "Max Muncy either walks or strikes out" is pretty accurate in general, but just -125 to record a single hit against Senga and the New York Mets is a little extreme.

Muncy has three hits in five postseason games thus far, but that's also come with just one total walk. He just struggled to mount offense in the NLDS, but Senga is an entirely different challenge. Even at full strength a year ago, Senga's 72.1% contact rate was fairly gettable.

There's value in this line relative to others in this game. Muncy is currently FanDuel's 16th-likeliest player to record a hit in today's game. Our daily MLB projections disagree. They've got him as the 13th-likeliest player at 0.88 total hits, which would imply roughly -141 odds for at least one if assuming that projection is correct.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Flaherty's issues with the long ball are meeting Pete Alonso at the wrong time.

"The Polar Bear" is detonating the playoffs. He's posted a 1.161 OPS, .455 ISO, 40.0% flyball rate, and 60.0% hard-hit rate in seven games, and this was his better split for home runs mashed (25) than when facing a lefty (9) in the regular season.

By a postseason standard, this is actually a pretty solid game to target a bomb in MLB's second-best park for home runs this season -- especially with the pitching at play.

Our projections expect 0.28 home runs from Alonso in Sunday's game, so assuming that is correct, we'd put his odds for a home run closer to +309. Alonso's massive hard-hit rate drawfs the three players in front of him in this market; I'll take my chances with a guy torching the baseball.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.