3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 8/14/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers

Tigers Under 3.5 Runs (-113)

The Detroit Tigers lit up the Seattle Mariners for a thumping 15 runs in Tuesday's game. I don't think their offense will be as uncharacteristically boisterous tonight.

Bryan Woo will get the ball for Seattle. Visits to the IL have limited Woo to just 13 starts this season, but he's been awesome when available. Through 67 1/3 innings pitched, Woo has managed a stellar 2.27 ERA, 2.24 xERA, 3.85 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and gives up a mere 0.53 home runs per nine innings.

He's now been back in Seattle's rotation for five starts and was under a normal pitch count in his last two outings. In those two contests, he pitched a total of 13 2/3 frames while allowing just 3 ER and striking out 13 batters. One of these games came against this very Tigers team.

Detroit comes in with a .232 BA (22nd), .299 wOBA (24th), .391 SLG (17th), and 92 wRC+ (23rd) versus right-handed pitchers. They're also striking out at a 23.8% rate (eighth-highest) against this handedness. No one on the team has shorter than +630 odds to hit a home run tonight.

Since Seattle's relief enters with a 3.94 xFIP (seventh-best in MLB) and 3.62 SIERA (ninth) and wasn't overused in last night's game despite the blowout, I'll back their arms to limit an oft-underwhelming Detroit offense.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

Frankie Montas has been consistently meh this season and putting on a new uniform with the Milwaukee Brewers hasn't helped.

He's coughed up one home run in each of his starts with the Brew Crew. On the season, he's struggled with a 5.10 ERA, 4.66 xERA, 4.62 xFIP, and surrenders 1.41 home runs per nine innings.

So, with the Los Angeles Dodgers coming into town, let's celebrate by targeting a runs fest.

The Dodgers generate a .330 wOBA (fourth-best in MLB), 114 wRC+ (fourth), and .185 ISO (third) versus right-handed pitchers. The team is averaging 5.05 runs in road games. Montas cedes a 38.6% fly-ball rate and 2.03 home runs per nine innings to lefties. In turn, Shohei Ohtani has appallingly short +190 home runs odds in this one.

Los Angeles has scored over 4.5 runs in 48.3% of their road games. Mookie Betts is back in the lineup and hasn't missed a beat since coming off the IL, going 4-for-9 at the plate including a dinger. Ohtani is primed to rake and the top-to-bottom talent in the lineup makes him a difficult person to pitch around. With that, I'll side with the Dodgers' offense tonight.

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox

Red Sox Moneyline (-142)

The Boston Red Sox are favored in tonight's matchup against the Texas Rangers, and I think there's value to be had in Boston's moneyline.

Dane Dunning will be on the bump for Texas. He's been marred with a 4.77 ERA, 5.18 xERA, and 4.34 xFIP this season. He also allows 1.51 homers per nine.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, generate a .265 BA (second-best in MLB) .333 wOBA (second), .452 SLG (second), and .182 ISO (fourth) opposite northpaws. It'd be nice to have Tyler O'Neill in the lineup for this one, but Boston is still lethal versus righties and can exploit Dunning's 5.18 xERA, especially at Fenway.

Tanner Houck will get the ball for Boston. Houck has been quite satisfactory with a 3.02 ERA, 3.95 xERA, 3.51 xFIP, and allows just 0.52 home runs per nine innings. His ERA ranks 9th in MLB while his HR/9 ratio is the third-lowest in the majors. The Rangers come in with a .297 wOBA (26th), .376 SLG (25th), and 91 wRC+ (24th) opposite righties.

All in all, I think Boston isn't as heavily favored as they should be in this one, so I'll back their moneyline and consider Red Sox -1.5 at +138 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.