3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 8/20/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+105)

The Arizona Diamondbacks had their way in Game 1 against the Miami Marlins, winning 9-6 while covering the run line. The Marlins have now failed to cover the run line in four of their last five contests. Arizona could be bound for another cover tonight, especially considering their 7-3 record over the last 10 contests.

Eduardo Rodriguez will be on the rubber for the D-backs as he is making his third start since returning from a shoulder injury. It's been tough sledding over his first two starts of the season with a 5.06 ERA. Advanced stats aren't suggesting imminent positive regression, either, for Rodriguez holds a 5.02 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 4.44 xFIP.

However, Rodriguez is facing one of MLB's worst batting orders against left-handed pitchers. Miami is around the middle of the league with a slash line of .243/.297/.376 against righties, which drops to .226/.286/.344 when facing southpaws (the batting average is the third-worst mark in MLB).

With a small sample size this season, we can't lean too much on Rodriguez's pitch splits up to this point. Looking at last season's marks can give us a better idea, which featured a four-seam fastball touting a 44.2% usage rate while his cutter (18.5%) and changeup (18.3%) were the next most-used pitches. The Marlins have the fourth-fewest runs above average against four-seamers and the second-worst mark when facing changeups. Miami's production against cutters still isn't great with the 11th-fewest runs above average.

Rodriguez could find some of his footing tonight, flashing his 3.30 ERA from the 2023 season.

Edward Cabrera on the mound could spell more doom for Miami as he holds a 5.76 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Following back-to-back scoreless outings, Cabrera got back to the usual by surrendering six runs in his most recent outing. To make matters worse, Arizona holds the most runs above average against fastballs and the third-highest mark when facing curveballs -- two of Cabrera's three most-used tools.

Considering the Diamondbacks' recent success at covering the run line, I like their chances of continuing the trend considering the pitching matchup.

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees

Guardians Under 3.5 Runs (-104)

The New York Yankees will start one of their best pitchers on Tuesday as Luis Gil touts a 3.25 ERA. However, he comes off the worst start of his previous six outings; Gil gave up four runs in four innings compared to his 1.93 ERA over his previous five appearances. Will his struggles carry over to Tuesday, or will Gil get back to dominating?

Recent run production from the Cleveland Guardians suggests Gil will likely get back on track. Cleveland is averaging only 2.4 runs per game over their last five and has reached four runs only once over the five-game span.

A look at Gil's Baseball Savant page points to another low-scoring game for the Guardians. Gil is in the 71st percentile of expected ERA (xERA), the 92nd percentile in expected batting average (xBA), and 84th percentile in strikeout percentage (K%). Meanwhile, Cleveland has the seventh-fewest runs scored and fifth-lowest batting average over the last 30 days. For reference, the Guardians have the 13th-most runs scored and the 12th-lowest batting average on the season.

Cleveland could avoid strikeouts with the fourth-lowest K% in 2024. This has actually dropped over the last 30 days, going from 19.7% to 19.5%. At least the Guardians have something going for them.

Ultimately, Gil will probably get the best of Cleveland. They are also among the 11 lowest marks in runs above average against four-seam fastballs, changeups, and sliders over the last 30 days. All three of Gil's pitches will likely give the Guardians fits.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Astros Moneyline (-130)

Per usual, the Houston Astros are rounding into form with the postseason approaching as they have a league-best 9-1 record over their previous 10 games. Houston is looking to add to their record-setting seven consecutive ALCS appearances.

The Boston Red Sox are the next team on the chopping block. Following Houston's 5-4 win in Game 1 of the three-contest series, give me the Astros to come out on top once again for tonight's clash.

Boston's Nick Pivetta comes into this game struggling with a 7.11 ERA over his previous four outings. He hasn't even completed the fifth inning in two of his last four. This is far from ideal with the Red Sox holding the league's fifth-highest bullpen ERA.

Slugging could be the name of the game, for the Astros' home run production has spiked over their previous 11, totaling 1.91 dingers per contest compared to their season average of 1.19 (11th-highest). In a three-game series from August 9th to August 11th, Houston logged 3.0 big flies per contest against Boston.

Pivetta has given up two home runs in four straight starts. Plus, he sits in the bottom 27% of average exit velocity and bottom 37% of hard-hit rate.

Ronel Blanco pitching for the 'Stros generates even more confidence in this pick. Following a rough month in July with a 4.40 ERA, Blanco has bounced back in a big way with a 2.40 ERA over three starts in August. Plus, he's carried an xFIP of 3.34 or less in three of his previous four.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.