3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 7/23/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET

Pirates -1.5 (+114)

It's Paul Skenes day, so the St. Louis Cardinals should be in for a frustrating day at the plate.

Skenes has outdone the hype, pitching to a 1.90 ERA, 2.61 xERA, 2.24 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 2.40 SIERA, and an earth-shattering 34.9% strikeout rate through 66 1/3 frames in the majors.

Not only is he a near shoo-in to take home NL Rookie of the Year honors (-1100 odds), but he's also making a legit case for the NL Cy Young award (+550 odds; third-shortest) despite pitching just 11 games thus far.

St. Louis isn't bad against righties, sporting a .409 SLG (10th-best in MLB) and .318 wOBA (11th). But, we've yet to see a team really get one over on Skenes, and the Cardinals might not be good enough to be the first.

I'm not too enthused by the -142 odds on under 3.5 runs for the Cardinals despite being intrigued by the actual bet. Since the prone-to-blowups Lance Lynn will be taking the mound for St. Louis, let's instead look for Pittsburgh to cover -1.5 runs at +114.

Lynn has struggled to the tune of a 4.39 ERA, 4.91 xERA, and 4.28 SIERA. He lets up 1.31 home runs per nine innings.

Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are both in smash spots. Lynn surrenders 1.61 homers per nine and a 40.6% fly-ball rate to lefties. The lefty Cruz generates a .216 ISO, .360 wOBA, and 132 wRC+ versus righties while the switch-hitting Reynolds manages a .216 ISO, .374 wOBA, and 142 wRC+ in this split.

When Lynn doesn't have his stuff, the results aren't pretty. Let's look for Skenes to be Skenes and for Pittsburgh's batting order to come alive enough to secure a two-plus run victory.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET

Royals Moneyline (+100)

The Kansas City Royals (56-45) remain undefeated since the All-Star break and will look to extend their four-game winning streak in tonight's contest against the Arizona Diamondbacks (51-50).

Kansas City enters with a +80 run differential while Arizona holds a +16 run differential. The Royals will have slight advantages at the plate and on the mound tonight, so I'll back them to keep it rolling.

Jordan Montgomery will be on the bump for the D-Backs. He hasn't started a game in nearly one month due to a knee injury and, before that, was off to the worst season of his career.

Through 13 starts, Montgomery has been marred with a 6.44 ERA. He also holds a 5.14 xERA, 4.57 xFIP, 4.86 SIERA, and a lowly 15.1% strikeout rate. It's been mostly bad news for Montgomery, and the Royals have been fine enough against lefties, generating a .261 BA (6th-best), .399 SLG (15th), .308 wOBA (18th).

Arizona's bullpen struggles with a 4.25 ERA (21st), 4.35 xFIP (24th), and 1.14 HR/9 (25th). The pitching might not get any prettier past Montgomery.

Over on Kansas City's side, Alec Marsh will get the ball. His 4.52 ERA is made more concerning by his 4.94 xERA, but he has managed an acceptable 4.21 xFIP, 4.15 SIERA, and a 22.0% K%.

Plus, Arizona dominates against lefties but have been more average against righties, producing a .241 BA (15th), .398 SLG (14th), and .314 wOBA (12th).

Kansas City's momentum is exciting and they could blow this thing open against a vulnerable Montgomery and a questionable Arizona bullpen, so I'll side with them at even money odds.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (+104)

The Los Angeles Angels (43-57) and Seattle Mariners (53-49) will meet up tonight and we should expect these AL West foes to deliver some underwhelming action at the plate.

Both groups will go up against right-handed pitchers and are similarly ineffective against northpaws.

The Angels sport a .231 BA (24th), .374 SLG (25th), .299 wOBA (25th), .142 ISO (24th), and 91 wRC+ (26th) versus right-handed pitchers.

Seattle has performed even worse in this split, generating a .218 BA (29th), .362 SLG (28th), .293 wOBA (27th), .144 ISO (22nd), and 93 wRC+ (23rd).

A pair of dismal lineups should help this one trend toward the under, but we need some legit pitching, too. Luckily, Logan Gilbert will be on the mound for Seattle.

Gilbert comes in with a 2.79 ERA (9th-best in MLB), 3.11 xERA (8th), 3.45 xFIP (21st), and a 3.48 SIERA (16th). He limits opponents to just 1.02 home runs per nine innings and owns a 0.87 WHIP, good for the best mark in MLB. He should have no problem shutting the Angels up, and the opposing Jose Soriano has been decent in his first year as a starter for Los Angeles.

Through 15 starts and 87 1/3 IP, Soriano has managed a 3.71 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, and 4.04 SIERA. He surrenders a mere 0.82 home runs per nine innings.

Since LAA's awful bullpen could spoil the game's under, I'll instead target the intriguing odds on under 3.5 runs through the first five frames. Gilbert could come out of the first five unscathed while Soriano has been steady enough to prove limiting against one of the worst lineups in baseball.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.