3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 7/2/24

Austin Swaim•ASwaim3

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees

Yankees -1.5 in First 5 Innings (+108)

I prefer to target the New York Yankees in the first-five market (+108) than the full-game market (-110) because of their bullpen. We'll take the discount from FanDuel, though.

That's because the Yanks' relievers have struggled to a 4.53 xFIP in the last 30 days (fifth-worst in MLB), but there are no questions about tonight's starter, Luis Gil. The rookie sensation has posted a sparkling 3.26 expected ERA (xERA), .194 expected batting average (xBA), and 28.0% strikeout rate. All of those marks are 75th percentile or better across baseball.

He'll look to dominate a Cincinnati Reds team that, while improved against righties, still isn't elite. They've posted a 97 wRC+ facing them (when adjusting for park) in the past month. On the flip side, New York has a mammoth 114 wRC+ in this time heading into a matchup with Graham Ashcraft.

Ashcraft's 5.45 ERA is no fib, per a 5.10 xERA. He's also allowed a 45.6% hard-hit rate while permitting 1.46 HR/9. That's not ideal heading into a matchup with Aaron Judge and the fellas.

New York has a significant advantage on both sides of the mound, so I'll take the plus-money offering that they can pull out to an early lead.

San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers

Padres Moneyline (-106)

This game is primed to be a pitching duel between Dylan Cease and Nathan Eovaldi, but one of them is pitching slightly better than the other and will play in front of an offense that's significantly better in this right-handed split. That sounds like a moneyline.

Cease's first season with the San Diego Padres has been outstanding. He's registered a 3.40 xERA, .213 xBA, and a dominant 31.3% strikeout rate heading into a sublime matchup at present. The Texas Rangers have the worst OPS in baseball against righties (.580) in the last 30 days.

On the other side, "Slam" Diego couldn't be much hotter. The Padres have nuked right-handers for an .807 OPS in the same period -- the third-best mark in MLB. Lighting up some of the Boston Red Sox's best arms this weekend, the confidence has to be high heading into this matchup with Eovaldi.

The former Red Sox hurler had his season disrupted by a groin issue; while he's been fine, he certainly hasn't been the dominant ace that allowed Texas to win it all last season. Eovaldi has spun a 3.81 xERA, .242 xBA, and 24.7% strikeout rate in 2024 -- all well behind Cease in a tougher matchup.

As these bullpens have performed comparably recently, expect the Padres to nudge ahead early and hold that advantage.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 8.5 (-124)

I'd act quickly on this line as several domestic books have already gone to 9.0 runs as a total. Two poor starting pitchers and two bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) in the past 30 days should produce fireworks a couple of days early at Chavez Ravine.

The visiting Arizona Diamondbacks have to be crossing their fingers sending Ryne Nelson to the bump against the high-octane Los Angeles Dodgers offense. Nelson's 5.69 ERA is fairly legitimate when a 5.17 xERA is behind it, and the right-hander's .297 xBA is one of the worst in the sport. He's also not generating punchouts (15.0% rate) and has allowed hard contact on 43.6% of the balls in play.

The Dodgers haven't slowed down in light of Mookie Betts' injury, pummeling Nelson's split for a top-10 OPS (.774) in the past month. However, L.A. still might have work to do late in this one -- as has been the case in several of Bobby Miller's starts this season.

Miller hasn't qualified yet at a 6.75 ERA, but 20.0 innings deep, it's not looking good. He's posted a 5.89 xERA, .289 xBA, and 46.3% hard-hit rate allowed in his short amount of work.

The Snakes also have a sporty 117 wRC+ in the past 30 days against righties, so this pedestrian total at baseball's second-best park for homers seems a bit off. We can reasonably expect runs from both sides in L.A. this evening.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.