3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 8/29/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

Though the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox combined for just three runs yesterday, tonight's pitching matchup is primed to produce runs for both sides. With Fenway Park serving as the second-best venue for hitters, per Statcast Park Factors, this is a spot I'm looking to back over 8.5 total runs.

Bowden Francis (7-3, 4.02 ERA) toes the rubber for the visiting Blue Jays fresh off the best three-start stretch of his young career. The righty's surrendered just five hits and two runs across his last 22 innings, striking out 27 while walking three. But two of those three outings came against the lowly Los Angeles Angels, and he still sports only a 4.00 xFIP on the season.

Coupled with 44.4% fly-ball and 10.1% barrel rates, and I'm not envisioning as strong of an outing this time around. The Red Sox have mashed against righties this season, ranking second in wOBA (.334) and seventh in wRC+ (112). It helps that they feature upwards of six lefties in their lineup -- a split Francis has a 4.56 xFIP against. That includes Rafael Devers, who missed the last two games but is expected to return to the lineup tonight.

On the opposing side, the Blue Jays could find similar success against Boston's Kutter Crawford. The righty has fallen off after a blistering-hot start to the season and owns a 5.54 xFIP and 16.2% barrel rate allowed since the All-Star break. He's surrendered 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts.

Toronto has more than held their own against righties over the second half of the year, ranking seventh in wRC+ (115) in that split since the break. That puts them in a favorable position to help push this total over 8.5 runs.

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Under 8.0 Runs (-106)

With Brady Singer (9-9, 3.38 ERA) facing off with Hunter Brown (11-7, 3.72 ERA), tonight's Kansas City Royals-Houston Astros clash is one we can look to go under 8.0 total runs.

Singer's outperformed relative to his 3.79 xFIP, but that's still a respectable mark. He's done an excellent job forcing ground balls (46.6% GB%) and has allowed a passable 8.4% barrel rate. The righty has been up-and-down in the second half, though he's allowed zero runs in three of seven post-All-Star break starts.

Houston has hovered around the top 10 in wRC+ (111) against righties over the second half, but they didn't fare well against Singer in a previous head-to-head matchup this spring. Singer tossed five innings of one-run ball against the 'Stros back in April.

But even if the Astros get to Singer this time around, we can have enough confidence in Hunter Brown to continue backing the under. Brown has excelled since the All-Star break, pitching to a 2.99 xFIP and forcing a 50.5% ground-ball rate. Limiting quality contact is something Brown has done as well as anyone this season. According to Baseball Savant, the righty is in the 91st percentile in barrel rate allowed (4.7%) and 95th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed (31%).

He could be in for another strong start considering KC's subpar road numbers against right-handed pitchers. In that split, the Royals rank 21st in wRC+ (90) and 24th in wOBA (.295).

Brown alone can keep this total under 8.0 runs, but if you don't trust Singer against the Astros, it's easy to pivot to Royals under 3.5 runs at -111 odds.

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-120)

After popping for six runs despite ace Corbin Burnes starting for the Baltimore Orioles yesterday, the Los Angeles Dodgers could go nuclear against a more exploitable arm in Cade Povich.

LA ranks fourth in wRC+ (115) and third in wOBA (.332) against left-handed pitchers this season, so we can look for them to go over 4.5 runs at -120 odds.

Povich is certainly someone the Dodgers could have success against. The rookie southpaw has a 6.10 ERA on the year, backed up by similarly-poor ERA indicators (4.29 xERA; 5.93 xFIP; 5.61 SIERA). He continues to surrender a high barrel rate (10.5%) and fly-ball rate (48.4%).

That's not ideal when you're facing a Dodgers lineup that has the sixth-highest ISO (.174) and has averaged 4.9 runs per game since the All-Star break, but it does bode well for LA's chances of going over 4.5 runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.