3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 8/15/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Red Sox Over 3.5 Runs (-136)

Trading for Zach Eflin has been a home run so far for the Baltimore Orioles. Over two starts as an O, Eflin has pitched in the seventh inning of each appearance while totaling a 1.35 ERA during the span. He's also posted xFIPs of 3.55 or lower in three of his previous four starts dating back to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Eflin gets a tough challenge against the Boston Red Sox on Thursday. He battled the Rays and Cleveland Guardians in his two outings for Baltimore. Tampa Bay has the 3rd-fewest runs scored in baseball while Cleveland has the 12th-most. Boston's batting order is a step above both teams, totaling the fifth-most runs scored in MLB.

While he sits in the top 26% of hard-hit rate, Eflin has still given up a home run in three of his last four contests. Meanwhile, the Sox have the third-highest slugging percentage (SLG) and fourth-highest isolated power (ISO).

Pitch usage holds even more weight. His three most-used pitches are a sinker (31.0%), cutter (26.9%), and curveball (19.0%); Boston touts the third-most runs above average against sinkers, the sixth-most when facing cutters, and the seventh-most against curveballs.

The Red Sox's game total has gone over in 8 of their last 10 games, and they are logging 5.7 runs per game during the span. Eflin could be pulled earlier than the seventh inning considering the matchup, and that should mean only more runs for Boston with Baltimore's bullpen sitting in the bottom half of ERA.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies -1.5 (-134)

The Philadelphia Phillies have gotten the best of the Washington Nationals in head-to-head matchups, winning 7 of the last 10 while covering the run line 4 of the previous 6 clashes.

Zack Wheeler, who has the second-shortest odds to win the National League Cy Young (+220), will take the mound for Philly, while Mitchell Parker will be on the bump for the Nats. Parker hasn't been too shabby, either, with a 3.83 ERA, but advanced stats -- such as a 4.32 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) -- suggest that regression could be on the way.

Despite the rookie left-hander's stellar 1.04 ERA over his last three, I'm worried about Washington's ability to limit the Phillies' batting order. This is one of the best hitting teams against southpaws, for they tout the 3rd-most runs scored compared to the 12th-most when facing righties. There's another dramatic difference for batting average and wOBA. Philadelphia hits .250 paired with a .316 wOBA versus .268 and .341 against lefties.

To make matters worse, the Phillies are among the top half in runs above average against Parker's three most-used pitches -- a four-seam fastball, curveball, and splitter. Washington's bullpen probably won't provide much relief, either, with MLB's eighth-highest ERA.

Philly certainly looks poised to put runs on the board tonight, and we know what we're getting with Wheeler on the mound. The Cy Young contender has a 2.78 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and 3.51 xFIP. Plus, he's given up only two earned runs or fewer in five of his previous six starts.

numberFire's daily game projections agree with the Phillies covering the run line. They are forecasted to win by about 2.1 runs. This median run margin projection holds a 62.3% implied probability for Philly to win by at least two runs, which is a decent margin above the 56.1% probability suggested by the -128 odds for the run line.

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

Ranger Under 3.5 Runs (+104)

Projections across the board are pointing to the over for the Minnesota Twins-Texas Rangers matchup. numberFire has the total forecasted at 9.26 total runs. Massey Ratings is also suggesting this total should be set at 9.5.

Let's go against the grain by looking at under lines. A deep dive into the stats reveals the clear side to take.

The Rangers' recent run production bodes plenty of confidence, for they are averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last five contests. However, facing the Twins' Bailey Ober could bring Texas' hot streak to a screeching halt.

Keep in mind that the Rangers have the 10th-fewest runs scored against right-handed hurlers paired with an underwhelming slash line of .236/.304/.380 in this split. Texas is also among the eight lowest marks in runs above average against four-seamers and changeups, which are Ober's most-used tools. Minnesota's pitching should be able to hold up tonight.

In addition, the Twins' run production has been all over the place. Over the last five games, they combined for 21 runs over a two-game span but totaled only 5 runs over the other three.

After looking at the Rangers' Cody Bradford, I'm coming off the total under line, instead targeting Texas to go under their run total.

Minnesota has the seventh-highest home run percentage and launched multiple dingers in their recent run explosions. Bradford is in the bottom half of hard-hit percentage, and he hasn't lasted past the fifth inning over his last two outings. The Rangers' bullpen has the fourth-highest ERA, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.