3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 8/4/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels

Mets -1.5 (+105)

Though the New York Mets dropped last night's contest, they couldn't be better positioned by today's splits and pitchers to rebound.

New York sends Jose Quintana to the bump, which -- on its own -- isn't a world-class proposition. Quintana's 5.09 expected ERA (xERA) isn't ideal, but he is a high-floor hurler with solid groundball (47.1%) and barrel (7.0%) rates against him. Part of his issue has been a homer-to-flyball ratio (15.4% HR:FB) that is well above the league average (12.9%).

The opposing Los Angeles Angels should help. They've put up an ugly 56 wRC+ and league-worst .092 ISO against left-handed pitching over the past 30 days. Compare that to the Mets' 123 wRC+ and .181 ISO against righties such as Griffin Canning, and you'll see why they're working uphill.

Canning's also not a great one. His 4.86 xERA, .286 expected batting average against (xBA), and 41.4% hard-hit rate allowed are as bad as (or worse than) Quintana's given a more difficult assignment.

The Mets' bullpen (3.57 xFIP) has also significant outperformed the Halos' (4.21) over the past 30 days. In this whole package, expect the visitors to stay ahead by at least a pair.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Oakland Athletics

Dodgers Under 4.5 Runs (-108)

Today marks the first time all season I've taken a Los Angeles Dodgers team total to the under -- and this one isn't even extremely lofty.

Recent injuries and absences have the L.A. offense firing down a cylinder. They've posted a decent - but not great -- .757 team OPS against righties over the past 30 days, and their hard contact rate (31.3%) is below the league average in this period.

Today, they'll enter one of baseball's friendliest venues for pitchers as Osvaldo Bido and the Oakland Athletics have gotten their act together on that side of the bump.

A middle reliever to start the year, Bido's transition to an extremely effective starter has been a bright spot for the A's season. He's posted a 3.36 xERA, .187 xBA, and measly 2.9% barrel rate in 27.0 innings thus far. The much-maligned Oakland bullpen also has an average xFIP (4.00) over the past 30 days.

The Dodgers and Athletics both aren't performing to their season-long metrics recently, which might have left the possibility that L.A. fails to plate five-plus runs today a bit undervalued.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

Cubs -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-120)

On Sunday Night Baseball, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs square off in a classic matchup, and it's easy to profile the Cubbies to be ahead right around the time the starters in this one depart. That's because St. Louis' starter, Miles Mikolas, hasn't been particularly effective, and Chicago's Justin Steele has.

Mikolas enters this one ranking 35th percentile or worse across baseball in xERA (4.39), strikeout rate (16.2), and hard-hit rate allowed (41.4). The sinkerballer's groundball rate (41.6%) is below the league average, which could spell disaster as winds will blow gently outward at Wrigley Field tonight. The Cubs' .711 OPS against righties in the past 30 days is slightly below MLB average.

On the flip side, Steele's 3.08 xERA and 35.2% hard-hit rate allowed are 75th percentile or better, which helps his projection given the Cardinals (.723 OPS vs. LHP in last 30 days) are likely the slightly stronger offense in each's respective split entering this one.

These two bullpens are very close to potentially decide the outcome of a generally even contest, but Steele is a significant advantage for the Cubs out of the starting block. After yesterday's 5-4 loss, expect the Northsiders to get back on track today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.