3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 8/25/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Over 3.5 Runs (-148)

In the Cleveland Guardians' better split, I like a play on their team total today. That's less of a surprise when also writing up Jhonkensy Noel in Sunday's home run best bets.

Though Cody Bradford of the Texas Rangers has had a breakout season, per a 3.56 ERA well-supported by skill-interactive ERA (3.68 SIERA), I still don't quite trust the sophomore yet. He's been fortunate to only surrender 1.05 HR/9 thanks to a homer-to-flyball rate (8.5% HR:FB) well below the league average (12.0%) despite extreme flyball (49.6%) and barrel (8.9%) rates allowed.

Cleveland has a few boppers -- like Noel -- that can put a few runs on the board quickly with a mistake. Texas' bullpen has also struggled of late, posting a 4.67 xFIP (fourth-worst in baseball) over the past 30 days.

numberFire projects Cleveland for 4.37 runs in today's contest, which would imply roughly -174 odds for at least four if that projection is correct.

New York Mets at San Diego Padres

Padres Moneyline (-118)

The market might be undervaluing Martin Perez's upward trajectory since joining the San Diego Padres in this spot.

Perez has dazzled to a 3.43 SIERA with the club, improving his strikeout rate (25.3%) and hard-hit rate allowed (36.5%) to above-average marks since the deal. This coincides with increased curveball movement and usage to give him that "out" pitch he needed.

Jose Quintana takes the visiting mound, and no such trade or transformation has helped the southpaw's ugly peripherals. He sports a 4.73 SIERA and 38.6% hard-hit rate allowed, culminating in 1.36 HR/9 allowed for the sinkerballer. His extremely low 8.5% swinging-strike rate is indicative of missing that "out" pitch.

Against lefties over the past 30 days, the New York Mets (.733 team OPS) and Padres (.756) are fairly similar -- if the Friars aren't a smidge better. In a near pick 'em, they seem like the side as numberFire projects San Diego to win 53.1% of the time.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-106)

Both offenses on Sunday Night Baseball should be able to do some damage.

The Baltimore Orioles seem to have the tougher test at home with Yusei Kikuchi (3.40 SIERA), but Kikuchi is not perfect. He's getting smashed into the sixth percentile across MLB qualifiers in hard-hit rate allowed (45.2%), and the O's absolutely pummel lefties. In the past 30 days, their .788 team OPS is fifth-best in baseball.

With Dean Kremer toeing the slab for Baltimore, the Houston Astros are more obvious. Kremer's ceded 1.40 HR/9 behind hefty flyball (43.9%) and hard-hit (37.0%) rates allowed. His 4.94 expected ERA (xERA) sits in the 16th percentile of MLB qualifiers. Houston's injury-marred lineup is still 12th in team OPS against righties over the past month (.751).

While looking to avoid these inconsistent bullpens since I can with this first-five-inning line, numberFire is on board with offense here, too. They're giving the full-game over a 54.5% chance of cashing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.