3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 8/18/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs

Under 7.5 Runs (-118)

Extreme wind and drizzly conditions should help a low-scoring affair at Wrigley Field today.

That also sets up well for this pair of pitchers, too. In any weather, Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs is a tough out if his 3.47 expected ERA (xERA) and 25.1% strikeout rate are any indication. It'll help him out today that the visiting Toronto Blue Jays have the seventh-worst team OPS in baseball against lefties over the past 30 days (.692).

Imanaga's bugaboo has been a 48.2% flyball rate. The same can be said for Toronto's Bowden Francis (42.9% flyball rate). With wind knocking down potential home runs, both should be far more comfortable that mistakes won't be punished.

Francis' assignment isn't supremely difficult, either. The Cubbies' .666 team OPS against righties over the past month is even worse than Toronto's. We should expect pitching to win out as it did yesterday in similar conditions.

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers

Twins Moneyline (-112)

Though it's a tough scene to expect the Texas Rangers to get swept at home in this series, it's been a tough season for the 56-68 defending champions.

The cards are stacked against them today again. The Minnesota Twins will start with a huge advantage on the bump in the form of Pablo Lopez, whose 3.45 xERA and 26.7% K rate are equally impressive.

Texas has stumbled to a .654 OPS against righties in the past 30 days, creating a huge deficit to the Twins (.788) in that regard. Minnesota has an easier righty to attack in the form of Tyler Mahle. Mahle's 4.50 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 9.2 innings thus far is definitely a "wait and see" mark when the righty coughed up 1.75 HR/9 a year ago.

As this game gets into the bullpens, the Twins' group of relievers have a much better xFIP over the past 30 days (3.70) than the Rangers' (4.79), too. Other than an off day from Lopez, it's tough to see how Texas avoids the brooms.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Over 5.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-130)

Shockingly, this hasn't cashed in either game of this series despite a minimum of 10 runs on the board in each contest. The weakest group of starters in this three-game set between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies can make it happen.

If Joe Musgrove was in some of his previous elite form, we'd have a different story, but Musgrove's 5.68 xERA has come with a 1.69 HR/9 allowed to this point, and Colorado isn't a push over against right-handed pitching. Their .757 OPS over the past 30 days in the split is certainly propelled by Coors Field, but that's where today's game will take place.

On the other side, rookie Bradley Blalock will toe the slab with a 4.98 SIERA in 6.2 innings, which isn't an elite start. His 4.10 xFIP in Triple-A this season doesn't project for much better -- nor does a 50.0% flyball and 50.0% hard-hit rate allowed. San Diego is also scorching against righties, amassing the league's fifth-best OPS against them in the past month of play (.809).

Avoiding the Friars' bullpen (2.99 xFIP in the past 30 days; best in MLB) is probably a wise call if betting this game's total. It could be an opposite situation of days past where we see a hot start that quiets throughout the contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.