3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 7/21/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

Reds Moneyline (-102)

The Cincinnati Reds can avoid a sweep today in large part thanks to a southpaw -- and a good one -- on the bump.

Andrew Abbott's effectiveness has been tremendous even if his strikeout rate (19.1%) is down quite a bit from last season. The lefty has a 3.51 expected ERA (xERA), a .226 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and miniscule 32.0% hard-hit rate allowed in 2024. It'll help him today that the Washington Nationals have an ugly .615 OPS against left-handers in the past 30 days (second-worst in MLB).

Toeing the opposite slab, Washington's Jake Irvin will have to navigate a Reds lineup that's starting to answer questions against righties much better, per a 114 wRC+ against them in the past month, which even accounts for their friendly home park. Irvin's 3.87 xERA isn't quite as strong, nor has he limited hard contact at nearly the same rate (41.1% allowed).

This split of pitchers favors Cincy -- and they may just have the better one. We'll back a hungry squad looking to nab one before heading to Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Yankees -1.5 (+134)

The New York Yankees got blasted, 9-1, on Saturday. They may well return that favor today.

The Bronx Bombers' overall prowess at the dish might still be a bit overstated, but they could run roughshod through Shane Baz if Baz hasn't made any improvements from his first two starts this season. Baz enters with a horrific 5.64 xERA, .278 xBA, and 56.5% (!) hard-hit rate allowed. New York's .724 OPS against righties the past month, though average, is ready to pounce.

On the other side, the Yanks will turn to Marcus Stroman. The sinkerballer's high rate of grounders (50.3%) give him a certain floor even if the hard contact allowed (38.2%) is a bit higher than you'd hope. Luckily for him, the Rays have a dreadful .666 OPS against righties (sixth-worst in MLB) over the past 30 days, so he's not facing an elite crew.

When adding in the fact that, over the past month, New York's bullpen (3.26 xFIP) has been significantly more reliable than Tampa's (4.14 xFIP), we can expect this pitching edge to hold through all nine innings for the Pinstripes to pull ahead by two-plus marks.

Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (+122)

I'm stunned this comes at plus money, but it's likely due to the Texas Rangers' status as a favorite here.

Texas draws Dean Kremer (5.36 xERA) on the Baltimore Orioles' bump, but I don't trust them to hit righties (92 wRC+ vs. RHP in the past month) more than I trust Kremer. That's why I'm just turning to the O's offense to make life miserable for Andrew Heaney and a struggling Rangers 'pen (4.33 xFIP in the last 30 days).

Heaney's profile continues to scream "long balls" behind a 45.7% flyball and 40.2% hard-hit rate allowed. It's kind of crazy his rate of homers per nine (1.33) is actually fortunate with a 10.3% HR:FB ratio behind the league average. We know Baltimore absolutely demolishes this split, including a 119 wRC+, .776 OPS, and .202 ISO in it over the past month of play.

If Kremer isn't in good form, this game could become a shootout, but with ambiguity on that front, we'll avoid the Orioles' moneyline or the full-game total to just take a stab at Baltimore's team output.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.