3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 8/31/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians

Under 8.5 Runs (-122)

After last night's 18-run explosion in Cleveland, I'd expect a much more tame affair today.

The starting pitching in tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates-Cleveland Guardians clash should be much better. Cleveland is turning to Matt Boyd for his fourth start of 2024, and the lefty appears to have regained a bit of form from previous season. Boyd has posted a 3.55 expected ERA (xERA) across 16.2 innings to this point, and the Pirates' .698 team OPS against southpaws in the past 30 days (10th-worst in MLB) isn't overly frightening.

Pittsburgh's Luis Ortiz is proving to be an even better bet, though. Ortiz 4.18 xERA has survived a longer sample (107.0 innings) with above-average walk (7.3%) and hard-hit (37.5%) rates allowed. Ortiz's run of weak opponents continues with the Guards, who enter with a .688 team OPS in the past month against righties that is seventh-worst in baseball.

In one of baseball's better parks for pitchers, expecting either of these offenses to explode again seems a bit far-fetched.

Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies

Rockies First 5 Innings Moneyline (+120)

The further you dive into Ryan Feltner's efforts at Coors Field this season, the more it seems his 5.96 ERA in the park is rotten luck.

In terms of peripherals, Feltner has actually been better in Denver. The Colorado Rockies' starter has a 3.63 xFIP at home that's 4.57 on the road, and his flyball rate (26.4%) is significantly better at Coors than away (40.4%). You have to wonder if that could turn around tonight in a soft matchup with the reeling Baltimore Orioles, whose .664 team OPS against righties in August is fourth-worst in baseball.

I'd sooner be concerned for Baltimore's Dean Kremer here, per the Rockies' superior .756 team OPS in the same period. Kremer's not exactly a flawless pitcher entering baseball's best park for hitting with his own 4.98 xERA, 9.8% walk rate, and 11.0% (!) barrel rate allowed this season.

These two teams are headed for very different Septembers, but one could argue Colorado has a better pitcher and offensive split tonight. While avoiding their terrible bullpen (4.44 xFIP in the last 30 days), this number implying that they can pull ahead early is attractive.

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

Angels Under 3.5 Runs (-136)

The Los Angeles Angels might be swimming up a certain creek without a paddle this evening.

As mentioned in Saturday's MLB DFS picks, Bryan Woo and the Seattle Mariners are in an excellent position to notch two straight wins to begin this series. Woo has been sensational in 2024, posting a 2.29 xERA, .208 expected batting average allowed (xBA), 2.7% walk rate, and 32.3% hard-hit rate allowed. All of those rank in the 85th percentile or better across MLB qualifiers.

It'll only help his cause that, per a 69 wRC+ in the past 30 days, the Angels are arguably the worst team in baseball against right-handers at the moment. L.A. has been held below four runs in 14 of their last 17 games -- just not last night.

With a strong hurler on the other side, expect the Halos' offensive impotence to make a definitive return this evening.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.