3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 8/24/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

These starters and relievers are too poor to give them an average total inside one of MLB's better parks for hitting.

The visiting Los Angeles Angels are sending out reliever-turned-starter Carson Fulmer, who has disappointed to the tune of 4.58 expected ERA (xERA), 10.1% walk rate, and 43.3% hard-hit rate allowed. All of those marks are in the bottom 25% of qualifiers across baseball. The Toronto Blue Jays' .778 OPS against righties in the past 30 days is seventh-best in MLB, and Fulmer is a weak one.

Don't discount the Halos scratching a few across when facing Bowden Francis, too. Francis' 43.5% flyball rate and 10.2% barrel rate are home run fuel -- of which he's ceded 1.70 per nine innings to this stage. The Angels' 88 wRC+ against righties in the past month is 10th-worst in MLB, but adding a few runs on one (or two) dingers will help this cause.

Both of these teams also sport a bottom-eight bullpen (by xFIP) over the past month of play. Last night's game took a late-inning rally to squeak over this number, but these two starters could easily let runs flood in early.

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Reds Moneyline (-112)

I'm a bit surprised the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates reached this point in the MLB season with nothing to play for, but that doesn't mean we can't target a winner on Saturday.

Frankly, both Julian Aguiar and Jake Woodford are matched by skill in this matchup -- and it's not of the excellent variety. Aguiar's 9.21 xERA in one outing wasn't a fast start, but you'd have to give the Reds' 16th-ranked prospect a bit of a pass compared to Woodford (5.48 xERA) in a larger sample of 27.0 innings. Slightly, I'd nod this area of the game to Cincy.

In terms of offense with both facing a righty, the Reds (88 wRC+ in the past 30 days) have outperformed the Buccos (86 wRC+) in that area even when accounting for ballparks, too.

However, the most notable advantage in Cincinnati's direction, to me, is their bullpen. They've posted a 3.86 xFIP in the past 30 days, which is ninth-best in MLB. The Pirates (4.39) are 23rd in that department.

With all positional advantages slightly leaning toward the Redlegs, it's not surprising to see them a short road favorite in this spot.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-106)

In many respects, Jake Irvin is a plain righty, and this is a plain team total. I'll back a surging Atlanta Braves offense in MLB's sixth-best park for hitters to get the better of him.

Irvin ranks 45th percentile or worse across MLB qualifiers in xERA (4.19), expected batting average allowed ( .253 xBA), strikeout rate (20.7%), HR/9 allowed (1.43), and hard-hit rate allowed (40.2%). We see this in baseball sometimes where he's just run extraordinarily hot to post a sub-4.00 ERA (3.81) this season that many would point to and assume effectiveness.

The relievers following Irvin likely won't hurt this cause; the Washington Nationals' 4.62 reliever xFIP over the past 30 days is sixth-worst in baseball.

After an uncharacteristically poor showing from Atlanta most of the season against righties, they've turned it up recently. Atlanta has the eighth-best team OPS (.859) in the split over the past month of play.

Writing up Matt Olson in today's home run best bets, this was a natural choice for a traditional market. I'm avoiding the game total and runline in this one due to being unsure exactly what I'll get from 40-year-old Charlie Morton against the low-whiff Nats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.