3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 8/17/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays

Diamondbacks Moneyline in First 5 Innings (-118)

All three teams in today's picks are trying to bounce back from underwhelming -- if not "WTF?" -- performances on Friday.

It was certainly the former for the Arizona Diamondbacks, who fell 5-4 in a tight contest with the Tampa Bay Rays. I'm expecting Arizona to get back on track given today's splits.

Arizona sends a mostly reliable Zac Gallen to the bump. Despite his elevated hard-hit rate allowed (42.0%), "The Milkman" has navigated to 3.69 ERA that's decently supported by his expected mark (4.07 xERA). The good news for him? The bottom has fallen out of this Rays order since selling off most of its parts at the deadline; they're down to an 89 wRC+ and up to a 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the past 30 days.

On the flip side, Jeffrey Springs -- a comparable lefty to Gallen's expectations -- has a much tougher matchup. Springs' 4.39 xERA will face off with a Snakes order that's posted MLB's sixth-best team OPS against southpaws in the past month of play (.822).

I'm not sure why I'd take Arizona's full-game moneyline (-120) when they've got the weaker bullpen, per a 3.88 reliever xFIP over the past 30 days to Tampa's 3.26. I'll take the small discount to five-and-dive with Gallen.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Padres -1.5 (-134)

The San Diego Padres don't want to cough up games in a tight NL Wild Card race, and that's just what they did with a 7-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies last night. The rotation's best stopper should help them get pointed in the correct direction.

That's Dylan Cease, who -- in addition to a July no-hitter -- has dealt a majority of 2024. His 3.19 xERA, .204 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 31.9% strikeout rate are all 83rd percentile or better across baseball, and the host Rockies are no elite challenge when accounting for their park. They've posted a below-average 99 wRC+ against right-handers over the past month.

On the flip side, the Friars have tattooed left-handers like Kyle Freeland. San Diego's .808 team OPS and .209 team ISO against lefties in the past 30 days are both top-eight marks in baseball. Freeland doesn't present an extreme challenge, according to his 5.15 xERA, .288 xBA, or 10.0% barrel rate. Those are all in the bottom 10% of MLB qualifiers.

Plus, over the past month, the Padres' bullpen (3.06 xFIP) has greatly outperformed the Rockies' (4.49). That could be helpful if we need an insurance run late to cover this runline -- but I'm guessing we won't.

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels

Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-136)

Writing up two Atlanta Braves in my home run best bets for Saturday, it shouldn't be a surprise to see their team total here. Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley's potential dingers would go a long way to this cause.

Though Atlanta's puzzling struggles with righties this season are well-documented, they've at least heated up to a .730 team OPS over the past 30 days in the split (16th in MLB). That trend could continue with one of baseball's most susceptible arms, Griffin Canning of the Los Angeles Angels, toeing the enemy slab this evening.

Canning's woeful 2024 has left him with a 4.76 xERA, .276 xBA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate allowed to this stage. All of those marks sit in the bottom 30% of baseball's qualifying pitchers. It won't get much better than him in the 'pen; L.A.'s 4.73 reliever xFIP over the past month is sixth-worst in MLB.

The Halos' surprising competence against left-handed pitching (113 wRC+ in the last 30 days) has me wary of taking the Braves' -132 runline on the road -- even with Chris Sale on the mound. I'd rather just bet the offensive outburst here after just two runs from this group on Friday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.