3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 8/10/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals

Over 9.5 (-104)

Two of baseball's least intimidating pitchers will toe the slab today in D.C., which should be a huge change of pace from yesterday's five-run affair.

The visiting Los Angeles Angels will send out Griffin Canning, who has stumbled to a 4.75 expected ERA (xERA), .263 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 41.6% hard-hit rate allowed this season. All of those marks are in the bottom 30% of qualifiers, and he'll face a a Washington Nationals club with a decent .702 team OPS against righties in the past 30 days.

Luckily for the Halos, he's punching in his own weight class today with Washington turning to Patrick Corbin. Corbin's 5.82 xERA, .307 xBA, and 47.1% hard-hit rate allowed are even worse, and the Angels' team OPS against lefties in the past month (.713; 17th in MLB) is also good enough to keep some of those struggles going.

Plus, both of these poor starters have bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) over the past 30 days, so the onslaught of runs is well-positioned to continue through the game in one of baseball's friendliest environments for offense.

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

Cubs Over 5.5 Runs (+102)

The Chicago White Sox came within a run of making Grady Sizemore's debut on the Southsiders' bench a positive one. I'm not sure Sizemore's new club can keep things as close today.

At the very least, Chris Flexen seems hard-pressed to keep the visiting Chicago Cubs off the board in this Crosstown Classic matchup. Flexen's 4.94 xERA, .265 xBA, 16.5% K rate, and 46.7% flyball rate are all 25th percentile or worse across baseball. To make matters worse, winds are expected to blow out at 10-to-15 miles per hour tonight. That hitter-friendly weather should also impact the White Sox's struggling bullpen (league-worst 5.16 xFIP over the last 30 days) throughout Saturday's game.

The Cubs have topped six runs in four of their last five contests, and that's led to an uptick in team OPS against righties over the past month of play (.702). They don't come much more susceptible than Flexen to keep it going.

Tonight's breezy weather is the reason I'm looking Chicago's team total in lieu of the runline despite generally being a fan of the Cubs' Justin Steele (2.97 xERA). A couple of ill-timed barrels could lead to that being far greasier than it needs to be. Instead, I'll back the Baby Bears' offense to stay red hot.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pirates First 5 Innings Moneyline (-120)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost five in a row, but potential "stoppers" don't come much better than NL Rookie of the Year odds-on favorite Paul Skenes.

Skenes has been masterful in his first MLB season, navigating the campaign with a 2.59 xERA, .198 xBA, and 32.3% strikeout rate. He's 94th percentile or better across all of MLB in those categories. It's particularly rare that Skenes is just a -120 favorite to win (or potentially tie) the first five innings, but this line is a product of the Los Angeles Dodgers playing host to Skenes and the Buccos at Chavez Ravine this evening.

With that in mind, I don't quite buy L.A.'s starter, River Ryan, in this one. Ryan's 1.26 ERA is hiding a 4.53 xERA across his first 14.1 innings in the bigs, and he's particularly struggled with a 14.1% walk rate. The Pirates' 7.9% BB rate against righties is 14th-best in MLB over the past month of play, so they'll take a decent amount of free passes.

The Dodgers are a bit shorthanded without Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, so while their 117 wRC+ against righties in the past month of play is solid, it's not the fearsome L.A. attack we've come to know. Pittsburgh's 90 wRC+ is still well behind, but they've got a far easier matchup.

Ryan is due for significant regression in both the ERA and homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) column given just a 5.9% rate thus far, though. Perhaps Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz can go yard early so that Skenes can bring this home at a near pick 'em. If Livvy Dunne's beau blanks the Dodgers over five, this one pushes at worst.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.