3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 7/27/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays

Reds Over 3.5 Runs (-122)

We targeted the Cincinnati Reds more recent improvements against righties last weekend, and we'll look to continue that here.

Cincinnati's 91 wRC+ for the season against right-handed pitching is sixth-worst in baseball, but they've upped that to 118 over the past 30 days. Again, we'll always want to work in a park-adjusted metric with the Reds given their home venue.

Here, they'll face a workable matchup in the form of Zack Littell and the Tampa Bay Rays. Littell's 4.35 expected ERA (xERA), .269 expected batting average allowed (xBA), 40.5% hard-hit rate allowed, and 9.4% barrel rate are all 35th percentile or worse across baseball. Plus, when he departs, he'll give way to a Tampa bullpen with the 10th-worst xFIP over the past month (3.98).

The Rays crush lefties like the Reds' capable starter, Andrew Abbott. I'm not sure who wins out on that side of the diamond, so the team total projecting offensive success from the visitors is a better play than the moneyline or game total.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Under 7.5 (-124)

Notably, this is the first of a doubleheader between the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants today. The nightcap's under comes at plus money with two poor starters despite frigid weather for July in the Bay Area today.

Temperatures are in the 50s at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park despite favorable wind, which should boost the relative prospects of these starting pitchers -- both of whom like to work on the ground. Colorado's Ryan Feltner (45.3% groundball rate) and San Francisco's Blake Snell (46.1%) are both 60th percentile or better at inducing grounders.

With that the case, these offenses just aren't very strong for two decent starters. Feltner's 4.20 xERA is significantly better than a Coors-inflated 5.19 ERA would lead you to believe, and Snell's 3.55 xERA is borderline elite.

The Giants have just a .710 OPS against right-handers over the past month of play (13th-worst in MLB), and the bottom has fallen out for the Rockies with a 69 wRC+ against southpaws -- adjusting for park -- in this same period. That's ahead of only the Los Angeles Angels (53).

Last night's 15 combined runs could be tough to come by on a day of weather in S.F. that doesn't sound too bad in the dog days for most of the country.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

Astros -1.5 (+146)

The Los Angeles Dodgers' star-studded lineup suddenly has Gavin Lux hitting cleanup as L.A. added Freddie Freeman (family leave) to its list of absences for this weekend series in H-Town.

With that the case, L.A. might be overrated to keep things competitive today. They're at a significant pitching disadvantage with the Houston Astros sending out Ronel Blanco to face Justin Wrobleski.

Blanco's early-season no-hitter set the tone for an outstanding season, posting a .223 xBA, 28.9% whiff rate, and 34.4% hard-hit rate even if his overall xERA (3.78) is a smidge high. He's a reliable arm to generate whiffs and weak contact.

On the other side, Wrobleski's 4.40 ERA might be extremely lucky if a 5.27 xERA, 10.2% walk rate, and 17.5% (!) barrel rate are any indication. Wrobleski will have the misfortune of taking on an Astros order that has tattooed lefites for an .812 OPS and .204 ISO in the past 30 days.

Plus, Houston's bullpen (3.69 xFIP) has significantly outperformed L.A.'s (4.43 xFIP) in the past month. This seems like another spot where the 'Stros are well-positioned to win by at least a pair of markers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.