3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 7/20/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Mets -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-125)

The New York Mets dropped Friday's opener in Miami, but they've got every advantage in this game's setup to nod the series at one.

New York is sending Luis Severino to the mound, and Severino has had more issues with former New York Yankees teammates than opposing batters this year. He's starred to a 3.78 ERA supported well by a 3.98 expected ERA (xERA), and his hard-hit (36.1%) and barrel (5.5%) rates are both nice, sitting 69th percentile or better across MLB qualifiers.

On the flip side, Miami is forced to turn toward Roddery Munoz, who has a 5.87 xERA, 41.3% hard-hit rate allowed, and 12.3% (!) barrel rate in those same categories.

Of course, the Mets also have crushed righties for a 128 wRC+ in the past 30 days, and the weak Marlins offense has a 78 wRC+ (second-worst in MLB) during this period.

Miami's bullpen (3.35 xFIP in the last 30 days) has actually been stellar of late, so I'll avoid them with this line, expecting the Metropolitans to pull ahead early after yesterday's disappointing effort.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs

Over 8 (-115)

If the wind at Wrigley Field was flipped to blow out rather than in, this line might be 11.5 runs. I'll take the value when Zac Gallen nor Kyle Hendricks are typically prone to the long ball, but both are candidates to get hit around the yard.

Gallen's 3.87 ERA is a bit of a fib when his 4.27 xERA is actually just 34th percentile in MLB. He's also in the bottom-20 percent of hard-hit rate allowed (47.2%), expected batting average allowed (.267 xBA), and average exit velocity (91.4). While "The Milkman" has been able to survive with a 44.2% groundball rate, he's asking to get BABIP'd to death.

Toeing the opposing slab, Kyle Hendricks has a similar story. His groundball rate (45.3%) has otherwise hidden an unsightly 4.99 xERA, .290 xBA, and 16.3% strikeout rate. These two hurlers just leave a lot to chance, and their styles are less sensitive to wind and weather.

With that the case, the Arizona Diamondbacks (.775 OPS vs. RHP in the last month) and Chicago Cubs (.755) have blistered right-handed pitching of late. I'll side with an offensive effort against two pitchers asking for bad luck.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (Game 2)

Cardinals Moneyline (-118)

Importantly, this is a moneyline for Game 2 of the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves' doubleheader. We're supporting the Bravos' offense in Game 1, but this pitching matchup squarely favors the Redbirds.

Sonny Gray will be intentionally saved for Game 2 with that in mind. Gray somehow missed Tuesday's All-Star Game despite an identical 3.34 ERA and 3.34 xERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, and stellar .234 xBA. Atlanta has some big bats, but the proof is in the pudding over the past month of play. They've posted a .642 team OPS against right-handers in this time.

The home team will turn to Bryce Elder, and the former top prospect for Atlanta still hasn't found his footing in the bigs. Elder's 4.86 xERA has come with a gigantic 45.3% hard-hit rate allowed and .283 xBA. His 5.71 ERA is largely deserved, and the Cardinals -- after a glacial start against righties -- have a .767 against right-handed pitching in the past 30 days. That's the ninth-best mark in baseball.

St. Louis is 11-6 in Gray's starts this season, and a plus matchup should help them score a 12th win.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.