3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 8/19/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets

Mets Over 4.5 Total Runs (-102)

The New York Mets get a mouth-watering matchup with Trevor Rogers tonight, and while the Baltimore Orioles' offense is a tad too scary for me to consider backing New York on the moneyline, I still want some exposure to the Mets' bats. That makes this an intriguing spot to target Mets over 4.5 total runs at -102 odds.

New York has crushed lefties this season, ranking third in wRC+ (119) and wOBA (.334) in the split. Several of their regular have an OPS north of .800 in that split, including Mark Vientos (1.066), Pete Alonso (.890), J.D. Martinez (.884), and Francisco Lindor (.844). Considering how shaky the left-handed Rogers has been, this is a lovely spot for the Mets to pour on runs.

Across 24 starts for the Orioles and Miami Marlins, Rogers has a 4.89 ERA. His ERA indicators (5.17 xERA; 4.47 xFIP; 4.91 SIERA) aren't much better, and his strikeout rate is down to a career-low 17%. Coupled with a 12th percentile hard-hit rate allowed (44%), Rogers has the kind of profile the Mets should be salivating over. He's let up five runs in two of three starts since being traded to Baltimore.

But even if Rogers doesn't surrender five runs again, the Orioles' bullpen is one the Mets can still do damage against. They're just 14th in reliver xFIP (4.07) on the year and have the fourth-highest reliver ERA (5.31) since the All-Star break.

That sets the Mets up nicely to go over 4.5 total runs.

Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals

Over 9.0 Runs (-102)

We could see a good deal of offense when the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals meet up at Kauffman Stadium -- the third-best venue for hitting, per Statcast Park Factors. With KC averaging the third-most runs per game at home (5.27), we need only a modest output from the visiting Angels to push this game total over 9.0 runs.

The Royals will face righty Carson Fulmer, and that's a matchup they can take advantage of. Fulmer has a subpar 4.22 ERA on the year while his ERA indicators (4.52 xERA; 4.67 xFIP; 4.32 SIERA) aren't any better. He's in the 12th percentile for barrel rate allowed (10.2%) and the 16th percentile for hard-hit rate allowed (43.1%) according to Baseball Savant, and that's played a role in him letting up 15 runs over his last 23 1/3 innings of action.

KC sports the third-highest wOBA (.343) against right-handers and is top 10 in wRC+ (113) when racing a righty at home. They've also scored at least five runs in 10 of 14 home games since the All-Star break. Nine of those 14 games went over 9.0 total runs.

The Angels have a tougher matchup against Seth Lugo, but he's been a regression candidate for some time now. Though he owns a 3.04 ERA on the season, his ERA indicators (3.97 xERA; 3.96 xFIP; 4.07 SIERA) suggest he's punched above his weight thus far. He has just a 20.8% strikeout rate but has been aided by a .268 BABIP -- a number that's lower than the .298 and .283 marks he posted in 2023 and 2022, respectively.

That should allow LA to put up a few runs, though we're still primarily banking on KC to carry the scoring load. That makes Royals over 5.5 runs an intriguing wager, as well, at +116 odds, but I'm pessimistic enough about Lugo to back the game total to go over 9.0 runs.

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics

Rays -1.5 (+128)

It's hard to ignore how lopsided the pitching matchup is in tonight's Tampa Bay Rays-Oakland Athletics clash. That makes Rays -1.5 an intriguing value at +128 odds.

Taj Bradley gets the start for Tampa Bay. He's coming off a trio of ugly outings but had given up only two earned runs total across his previous six starts. He still has a 3.49 ERA on the season, backed up by solid ERA indicators (3.83 xERA; 3.49 xFIP; 3.52 SIERA). His strikeout rate is a clean 28.5%, so there's a lot to like against an Oakland side that ranks in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ (98) and strikes out at the third-highest clip (25.3%) versus RHP.

I'm bullish on Bradley's chances of bouncing back tonight, but the best reason for backing Tampa Bay -1.5 is that they'll face A's righty Joe Boyle.

Boyle has had a brutal season thus far, pitching to a 7.39 ERA through eight starts. His ERA indicators (4.87 xERA; 5.28 xFIP; 5.39 SIERA) suggest he's pitched a bit better than that ERA shows, but they're still ugly marks. He's forcing ground balls at just a 33% clip and has walked a staggering 17.0% of batters, contributing to his 1.83 WHIP.

That bodes well for a Rays side that's picked things up against righties over the second half of the year. They're still just 18th in wRC+ (98) versus RHP during that stretch, but with Dylan Carlson (.411 wOBA), Brandon Lowe (.387), Josh Lowe (.370), and Junior Caminero (.350) all sporting strong numbers in this split since the All-Star break, Tampa Bay is set up well to handle an exploitable arm like Joe Boyle.

Brandon Lowe, in particular, could be in for a big night, and he's one of the best home run bets for Monday's action.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.