3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 7/22/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 6:41 p.m. ET

Over 7 (-120)

The first contest of a four-game series between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians will begin on Monday. The two recently met in a four-game series from July 8th to July 11th in which the over finished 3-1.

I'm expecting this trend to carry over to Monday. Detroit is rolling with a 10-3 record over their last 13 while averaging 6.6 runs per game compared to their season average of 4.29 (16th-most).

The Tigers are raking and get a favorable matchup against Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland's starter has a 4.33 SIERA and sits in the bottom 29% of hard-hit percentage, per Savant.

Detroit has been slugging at a very high rate, totaling 1.6 home runs per game over the last five. Meanwhile, Carrasco has surrendered five dingers in his last five appearances.

The over could mostly depend on the Guardians' success against Tarik Skubal, who has the shortest odds to win the American League Cy Young (-130). Since a slip in mid-June, Skubal has a 2.08 ERA while averaging 8.8 strikeouts per start over previous four outings.

Cleveland could have some answers for the All-Star pitcher, though. They see their wOBA move from .310 to .328 against southpaws (eighth-highest) while recording the third-most runs versus left-handed hurlers.

In line with numberFire's game projections, the Guardians could do just enough alongside the red-hot Tigers for the over to hit.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET

Brewers -1.5 (+138)

The NL Central's top dog opens a three-game series against the up-and-down Chicago Cubs. The pitching advantage should be in the Milwaukee Brewers' favor, making them an intriguing bet to cover the run line.

Rookie Tobias Myers will be given the ball on Monday, and he has delivered some of his best starts over the last two months.

It took some time for Myers as he failed to pitch into the sixth inning over his first seven appearances to start the season. However, things have changed since June with Myers completing the sixth inning in six of seven outings. Best of all, he's holding a 1.79 ERA during the stretch compared to 5.40 over his first seven starts.

Myers has recorded xFIPs of under 3.65 in four of his last six games. Meanwhile, the Cubs' Javier Assad posted dreadful xFIPs of 7.28 and 7.64 in his last two starts. He failed to reach the fifth inning in both games and has a 6.14 ERA since June.

Additionally, the Brewers' batting order has been like fish grease in a frying pan, reaching double-digit hits in three straight while totaling 8.3 runs per game during the span.

Chicago hasn't covered a run line in three consecutive contests while Milwaukee has done so in two of their last three. The writing is on the wall; give me the road team to cover.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Giants Moneyline (+108)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have had their way in head-to-head matchups against the San Francisco Giants this season, carrying a 6-3 record.

L.A. is favored to take another game tonight with River Ryan expected to make his debut on Monday while the Giants' Blake Snell will be on the bump.

The pitching matchup makes this one a tough call. Do we roll with the head-to-head results or back the veteran starter?

Looking at Snell's recent production could be the deciding factor. It's been a nightmare season after winning the Cy Young in 2023, but he is finally showing glimpses of his old self.

After carrying a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts, Snell hasn't given up a run in back-to-back appearances and recorded his best xFIP of the season in his last start (2.14). Plus, in 13 career starts against the Dodger blue, Snell is carrying a eye-popping 2.59 ERA.

Ryan ranks as Los Angeles' fourth-best prospect and has delivered impressive stuff across five starts in Triple-A this season (2.76 ERA; 3.75 xFIP; 10.47 K/9). Perhaps his biggest strength has been striking batters out, for Ryan has carried a K/9 eclipsing 10.0 nearly every step of the way in the minors.

However, the Giants have been under their season average of 8.34 strikeouts per game, averaging 7.5 over their last two games.

Ultimately, we don't know too much about Ryan ahead of his MLB debut. Considering Snell's recent success, San Francisco is an enticing moneyline pick at +108.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.