3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 8/9/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

First 5 Innings Total Runs Under 3.5 (+116)

The Crosstown Classic is set for tonight with the Chicago Cubs taking on the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Garrett Crochet will be on the bump for the White Sox. He's shined with a 2.17 SIERA (best in MLB), 2.57 xERA (second-best), 2.61 xFIP (second-best), and a resounding 33.9% K% (best). He has been having his workload monitored, throwing 74, 64, and 77 pitches across his last three starts. We probably can't expect any more than 4-to-5 innings from him, but that's all we need him for with this bet.

The Cubs own a .246 BA (17th), .382 SLG (21st), .302 wOBA (23rd), and 1.36 ISO (25th) against left-handed pitchers. Crochet, who allows just 0.91 home runs per nine innings, should prove limiting against a so-so Cubs lineup.

On the other side, we have Jameson Taillon pitching. He's been dealing to the tune of a 3.25 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and 4.21 xFIP, and I trust just about any decent pitcher to silence the White Sox. The South Siders struggle with a .214 BA (worst in MLB), .340 SLG (worst), .270 wOBA (worst), and 71 wRC+ (worst) versus right-handed pitchers.

I'm thrilled to be getting this at +116 odds. The Cubs will face one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, and we have reason to believe Crochet can get us through at least the fourth inning while the White Sox average only 1.79 runs through the first five frames.

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

Royals Moneyline (-116)

The Kansas City Royals are 37-24 at home while the St. Louis Cardinals are 28-30 on the road.

Kansas City's home bump is pretty insane. At Kauffman Stadium, the team produces a .268 BA (best in MLB), .443 SLG (third), and .333 wOBA (third). On the road, they generate just a .236 BA (17th), .384 SLG (18th), and .293 wOBA (26th).

Tonight, they'll go up against Miles Mikolas, who comes in with a 5.12 ERA, 4.47 xERA, and 4.24 xFIP. The righty allows 1.26 home runs per nine innings and will have his work cut out for him against Bobby Witt Jr. and company. The Royals own a .316 wOBA (12th) versus righties and, as mentioned, are a completely different team at home.

Michael Lorenzen will take the mound opposite St. Louis. Lorenzen has a 3.69 ERA, but a 4.62 xERA and 4.98 xFIP prove he has encountered his fair share of luck. With that said, only 7 of his 20 starts have been played at home, so he hasn't had the easiest schedule. Plus, changing uniforms can kickstart a positive streak, and Lorenzen looked good in his first start with the Royals since being dealt from the Texas Rangers.

The Cardinals sport a .253 BA (7th), .401 SLG (14th), and .314 wOBA (14th) against righties. The Royals have a more threatening offense to begin with, and the home bump has me bullish on backing their moneyline at fair -116 odds.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pirates Under 2.5 Runs (+132)

Jack Flaherty will make his second start with the Los Angeles Dodgers since being dealt from the Detroit Tigers. Flaherty pitched six scoreless innings in his Dodger debut.

On the season, he's been shining with a 2.80 ERA, 2.93 xERA, 2.61 xFIP, and 2.75 SIERA. All these marks rank inside the top six in MLB, and his 2.75 SIERA is the second-best in the league, behind only Crochet.

He'll go up against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that suffers a .231 BA (25th), .362 SLG (28th), .291 wOBA (29th), 84 wRC+ (28th), and .131 ISO (29th) versus right-handed pitchers.

Past Flaherty, the Dodgers will have Daniel Hudson (1.76 ERA) and Alex Vesia (1.86 ERA) available out of the bullpen.

Asking a team to score under 2.5 runs is a loaded task. But the pitching will be on display with Flaherty set to lead things for LAD, and Pittsburgh is pretty awful against righties. With +132 odds available in the alt market, I'm willing to back an underwhelming night at the plate for the Pirates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.