3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 8/30/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies

Orioles Moneyline (-146)

The Baltimore Orioles visit Coors Field tonight, and I'm backing their moneyline at these -146 odds.

Baltimore is clearly a better team than the Colorado Rockies -- you don't need me to break that down for you -- and it's not like the Rockies have a meaningful advantage on the bump tonight with Colorado's Austin Gomber (4.62 SIERA and 16.9% K rate) squaring off versus Albert Suarez (4.63 SIERA and 18.8% K rate). In fact, the two pitchers are fairly equal by those numbers.

Obviously, the thing that could throw a monkey wrench into this game is Coors Field, which amps up the variance, but in my eyes, that's not enough for the O's to be just a -146 favorite.

Also, Suarez has improved his game over the second half, pitching to a 4.20 xFIP and 19.4% strikeout rate, so there's a chance the Orioles have the edge on the mound in addition to a big advantage offensively (Baltimore is 5th in wOBA this year while Colorado -- a team that plays half its games at Coors -- is 15th).

And if you want to take a ride down narrative street, this game means a lot more to Baltimore, a team that is just 1.5 games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East.

numberFire's model has the Orioles' win probability at 70.4%. That comes out to a -238 moneyline. numberFire projects the final score to be 7.3-5.2 in favor of the O's. The current -146 moneyline implies win odds of only 59.3%.

With the caveat that Coors can be crazy, everything is coming up Baltimore for me in this one, so I'll jump on them at -146.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

Cardinals Over 2.5 Runs and Brendan Donovan to Get a Hit (-109)

Marcus Stroman has really struggled against left-handed hitters, and that leads me to this two-leg parlay.

Stroman is allowing lefties to post a .356 wOBA while striking them out at a meager 15.1% clip. Predictably, that's been a huge issue for him at his home park. When Stroman is pitching at Yankee Stadium, lefties are mashing him to the tune of a .370 wOBA and 1.67 homers per nine innings.

The St. Louis Cardinals have a few lefties who can do some damage -- notably Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Lars Nootbaar -- and are -205 to go over 2.5 runs.

I'm prioritizing Donovan, who owns a .327 wOBA and 41.2% fly-ball rate against right-handers. He also typically puts the ball in play with a lowly 12.1% strikeout rate and 7.0% walk rate. Fewer walks and Ks means more balls in play that could go for a knock. He's -220 to get a hit.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

Under 8.5 Runs (-105)

The struggles of the Texas Rangers' offense this year has been one of the weirder things of the season as Texas sits a putrid 24th in wOBA (.306). I'm hoping they keep moving down that same path tonight.

The Rangers host the Oakland Athletics, and the pitching matchup is slated to be JP Sears against Jon Gray. We've got two hurlers who are sneaky-solid and two offenses that aren't very good.

In addition to Texas ranking 24th in wOBA, Oakland sits 20th in wOBA (.306) with the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.6%). Both of these teams have been under-friendly squads all year -- the under has hit in 55.0% of Rangers games and 54.2% of Oakland contests, the third- and fourth-highest under rates, respectively.

As for the arms, Gray has pitched to a decent 4.31 SIERA while sporting a quality 11.3% swinging-strike rate. Oakland has been worse against righties (.306 wOBA) than lefties (.320), too.

Sears has similar overall numbers to Gray but has been cooking in the second half, recording a 3.97 xFIP and 21.3% K rate in that span. He's faced Texas twice this year and held them to four total earned runs over 12 frames.

Overall, the under is the side I want to be on.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.