3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 8/16/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 6.5 Runs (+100)

We've got a pitching duel set to take place at PNC Bank this evening. Logan Gilbert (third-shortest AL Cy Young odds) will be on the bump for the Seattle Mariners while rookie phenom Paul Skenes (third-shortest NL Cy Young odds) will get the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Skenes comes in with a stellar 2.25 ERA, 2.61 xERA, 2.68 xFIP, and 2.77 SIERA. He also touts a 0.96 WHIP and a whopping 32.3% strikeout rate, all while limiting opponents to just 0.88 home runs per nine innings.

He'll look to deal against the Mariners, a team that averages the fourth-fewest runs per game. Seattle is generating only a .218 BA (30th), .368 SLG (27th), and .297 wOBA (24th). They also strike out at a league-high 28.3% rate against this handedness, so I'm expecting them to play right into Skenes' hand tonight.

As for Gilbert, he shines with a 2.91 ERA, 3.23 xERA, and 3.34 xFIP. He also owns an MLB-best 0.87 WHIP and limits offenses to just 0.99 home runs per nine innings. Pittsburgh is weak against righties. The team enters the night with a .230 BA (24th), .360 SLG (28th), .130 ISO (30th), and .289 wOBA (29th) against this handedness.

We're shooting low with under 6.5 runs. But considering two of the best pitchers in baseball will go up against two of the weakest offenses in the league, I'm happy to side with the under at even money.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

First 5 Innings Over 5.5 Runs (+110)

The Philadelphia Phillies are facing a terrible left-handed pitcher tonight, making for a great spot to target some runs.

Philadelphia generates a .272 BA (second-best in MLB), .450 SLG (second), .178 ISO (sixth), 122 wRC+ (best), and .345 wOBA (best) versus left-handed pitchers.

They also average 5.38 runs per game (second-most in MLB) on their home field, so I like their chances to mash against the left-handed Patrick Corbin at Citizens Bank. Corbin suffers a 5.98 ERA, 5.90 xERA, 4.64 SIERA, and allows 1.31 home runs per nine innings. He produces a mere 16.8% strikeout rate and will have his hands full against a Phillies team that dominates lefties.

I like the over through the first five innings because that's when Philly should pack on the runs opposite Corbin. Aaron Nola will be on the mound for the home team. I'm not expecting the Washington Nationals' offense to give us as much as Philly, but they could be good for a couple of runs against Nola, who owns a 4.63 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break.

Nola has let eight balls fly over the fence across his last seven starts. The control isn't always there, so I'll look for him to give up a run or two through five frames and back Philadelphia's offense to take care of business from there.

Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds

Reds Moneyline (-132)

The Kansas City Royals are one of those teams that looks completely different at home than on the road. They own a 38-25 record (tied for fourth-best in MLB) at Kauffman Stadium but struggle with a 28-30 record on the road.

More importantly, their offense is a shell of itself away from Kansas City. They sport a .237 BA (18th), .387 SLG (18th), .293 wOBA (25th), and 89 wRC+ (25th) in this split but shine with a .270 BA (3rd), .444 SLG (4th), .333 wOBA (6th), and 106 wRC+ (12th) at home.

So, with Nick Martinez of the Cincinnati Reds set to take the mound, I'll be backing the Reds tonight. Martinez has predominantly served in relief this season but has started six games for the Reds. He's started two straight games for them and allowed zero runs and just five hits through 12 frames, all while punching out 12 batters.

Michael Lorenzen will be on the hill for KC. He's been fine but his 4.75 xERA proves that his 3.79 ERA isn't totally up to snuff. His 1.30 WHIP is room for concern against a Cincinnati team that is awesome on the basepaths. They've stolen a league-leading 168 bags this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.