3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 7/26/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

White Sox Under 2.5 Runs (+124)

The Chicago White Sox (27-78) have scored under 2.5 runs in 8 of their last 11 games. We could see that trend continue against George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners.

Kirby comes in with a 3.20 ERA, 3.20 xERA, 3.27 xFIP, and 0.98 WHIP (seventh-best in MLB). He's been particularly dominant as of late, owning a 2.06 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP across his last 10 starts.

The White Sox, meanwhile, are the worst offensive team in baseball, especially against righties. They generate a .214 BA, .338 SLG, .270 wOBA, .125 ISO, and 72 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers, all of which are league-worst marks.

Kirby also limits opponents to just 0.80 home runs per nine innings (14th-best in MLB), so the risk for a long ball is somewhat mitigated. Plus, Seattle's bullpen ranks 3rd in WHIP, 6th in xFIP, 6th in SIERA, and 11th in ERA.

Chicago has scored under 2.5 runs in 45.7% of their games this season, so these +124 odds (44.6% implied probability) show value. Add in the dominant pitching on Seattle's side, and I'm happy to strike on the under.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Over 9.5 Runs (-110)

The New York Yankees (60-44) and Boston Red Sox (54-47) will kick off a three-game series this evening. The results of this weekend could have a major effect on the AL East playoff race, so we should be in for some fun contests.

Tonight's game could create fireworks in the form of runs.

Brayan Bello will be on the bump for Boston. His 4.67 xERA and 3.61 xFIP aren't as ugly as his 5.27 ERA, but he's still been hit with 1.41 home runs per nine innings and has been consistently meh for the Red Sox.

The Yankees are generating a .338 wOBA (best in MLB), .447 SLG (second), and 122 wRC+ (best) versus right-handed pitchers. They should manage to pack on some scores against Bello.

Nestor Cortes will get the ball for New York. The lefty comes in with a 3.65 xERA, 4.08 xFIP, and 3.92 SIERA, all solid marks. However, Boston generates a .325 OBP (10th-best) against lefties. Tyler O'Neill is in a total smash spot against any lefty in the league and could exploit Cortes, who surrenders 1.66 home runs per nine innings to righties.

Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays

Rangers Moneyline (+102)

The Texas Rangers (51-52) will meet up with the Toronto Blue Jays (46-56) tonight, and perhaps the wrong team is favored.

Andrew Heaney will kick things off for Texas. He sports a 3.60 ERA, 4.02 xERA, and 3.92 SIERA. He's shown more control as of late and should benefit from a matchup against an uninspiring Toronto lineup.

The Blue Jays are producing just a .286 wOBA (27th), .338 SLG (28th), and 86 wRC+ (26th) against left-handed pitchers.

Yusei Kikuchi will get the ball for Toronto. He enters the night with a 4.54 ERA, 3.99 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, and 3.40 SIERA. With that said, he's been brutalized with a 6.62 ERA and 1.51 WHIP across his last 11 starts, so things have been going downhill for the lefty.

The Rangers are solid enough against lefties, owning a .311 wOBA (16th) and .391 SLG (18th) in this split. They'll also benefit from having the better relief arms in this matchup, so I'll side with Texas tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.