3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 7/12/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET

Under 7.5 (-108)

The highlights have been far and few between for the Chicago White Sox (27-68), a team that has been outscored by a walloping 165 runs this season, only to be rivaled by the Colorado Rockies (-167 run differential).

But it's Garrett Crochet day, so Sox fans should be in for some semblance of pride tonight.

Crochet's 3.08 ERA is made even flashier with a 2.47 expected ERA (xERA) and 2.50 SIERA, both of which lead all pitchers in MLB. He also touts a 2.46 xFIP (second-best), 0.97 WHIP, and a domineering 34.8% K% (best).

The opposing Pittsburgh Pirates (45-48) are primed to run into trouble at the plate. They generate a lowly .302 wOBA (21st), .237 BA (21st), .382 SLG (20th), and 93 wRC+ (23rd) versus right-handed pitchers.

Pittsburgh is striking out at a 24.7% rate (fifth-highest) against this handedness, giving credence to the -136 odds for Crochet Over 7.5 Ks. It also helps explain why the market is handing the worst team in baseball (White Sox -168 moneyline odds) a 62.7% win probability tonight.

You'll never catch me backing the White Sox at this price, but a pair of poor offenses has me giddy on the under.

The Pirates have yet to name a starter for tonight's game, but Marco Gonzales is listed as the probable pitcher, and a recent roster move suggests he could be called up following a rehab assignment.

Gonzales (forearm) has been sitting on the 60-Day IL but completed three games for Pittsburgh this year, letting up just 5 ER through 17 IP. Luckily, Pittsburgh's relief is fresh after Paul Skenes threw seven no-hit innings yesterday, and the Pirates' bullpen is allowing just 0.85 home runs per nine innings (tied for fourth-lowest).

The White Sox produce a .278 wOBA (29th), .220 BA (30th), .349 SLG (30th), 78 wRC+ (29th), and .129 ISO (29th). Despite the uncertainty of who Pittsburgh will send out tonight, I'm not too concerned that Chicago's bats will sour the under, and Crochet can keep the Pirates in check.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. ET

Cardinals Over 4.5 Runs (-111)

The St. Louis Cardinals (48-44) are heating up just in time for a date with Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs.

Hendricks has been on life support in his 11th season in the big leagues. His league-worst 7.53 ERA (minimum 60 IP) turns the most heads, though his underlying numbers aren't as troubling. Even still, a 5.14 xERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 4.47 SIERA won't cut it.

He also surrenders 1.85 home runs per nine innings (third-most in MLB) and has pitched past the sixth inning in only one of his starts. Hendricks left his last start with lower back tightness and probably won't be in for the long haul tonight.

Chicago's bullpen is meh, generating a 4.11 ERA (16th), 4.18 xFIP (21st), and 3.88 SIERA (23rd). They may be called upon for more than they can handle in this one.

The Cubbies have let up over 4.5 runs in 13 out of 16 games where Hendricks made an appearance, and a trending St. Louis offense could join that list tonight.

Across the first 70 games of the season, the Cardinals had put up just 269 runs (fourth-lowest in MLB), good for 3.84 runs per game.

But in the last 22 contests, St. Louis has notched 109 runs (third-most in MLB), averaging 4.95 runs in that span.

All in all, they sport a .253 BA (6th-best), .404 SLG (11th), and .316 wOBA (10th) versus right-handed pitchers, so they should be in a good spot to mash against Hendricks and company.

Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Blue Jays Moneyline (+108)

The Toronto Blue Jays (43-50) and Arizona Diamondbacks (47-47) will kick off a three-game series tonight.

Both groups are set to face right-handed pitchers.

Arizona owns a .313 wOBA (12th), .241 BA (16th), and 102 wRC+ (13th) versus right-handed pitchers, performing much better against lefties.

Toronto, meanwhile, holds a .306 wOBA (15th), .236 BA (19th), and 99 wRC+ (14th) against righties.

The Blue Jays perform ever-so-slightly worse than Arizona in this split, but they'll be granted a friendlier matchup with Ryne Nelson on the bump for the D-backs.

Nelson comes in with a 5.08 ERA, 4.82 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, and 4.62 SIERA. He's also been hit with a 1.48 WHIP and 1.13 home runs per nine innings.

Yariel Rodriguez will take the mound for Toronto. He's managed a 3.56 ERA, 4.15 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, and just 0.89 HR/9 in seven starts for the Jays.

Both of these teams have really bad bullpens, but Arizona's could see more usage. Rodriguez has pitched into the sixth inning for two straight games and is starting to see a longer pitch count leash. Nelson is more sporadic, failing to pitch past the fifth frame in 9 of his 14 starts.

Toronto's bullpen has a 1.33 WHIP and 4.07 SIERA while Arizona's struggles even more with a 1.37 WHIP and a 4.21 SIERA

George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have both been generating barrel rates higher than 15.0% across the last 30 days, helping the Blue Jays rank 9th in total runs in the last three weeks despite faring 24th on the season.

I'd give a slight lean to Toronto in this one, making these +108 odds a worthy target.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.