3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Wednesday 9/4/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Sonny Gray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Sonny Gray is one of the top strikeout aces in baseball. As of this writing, he touts a scorching 30.0% strikeout rate (fifth-best in MLB) and punches out 10.91 batters per nine innings.

Gray has notched at least 6 strikeouts in 21 out of 25 starts (84.0% of contests) and has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in 12 out of 25 games (48.0% of contests). These +108 odds imply a 48.0% probability.

Based on these hit rates, it's pretty easy to make a case for the over on Gray's strikeout prop, so long as he has a halfway decent matchup. Luckily, Gray will take the bump opposite the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers come in with a .325 wOBA (seventh-best in MLB) versus righties. They by no means have a bad offense. With that said, no Milwaukee player has shorter than +460 odds to hit a home run tonight, so the market is not expecting Gray to get lit up in any way, shape, or form.

More importantly, Milwaukee strikes out at a sizable 23.6% rate versus righties (12th-highest in MLB). Gray has taken on 19 offenses that own a 22.5% or higher K% versus righties. In this split, he is averaging 7.5 Ks. He notched at least 6 Ks in 89.5% of these games and surpassed 6.5 Ks in 52.6% of games in the split.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-136)

The Pittsburgh Pirates will clash with Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs this evening.

The rookie southpaw has been quite steady for Chicago and enters the night with a 3.14 ERA, 3.58 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA, and 25.0% strikeout rate. He holds these marks through 146 1/3 frames, proving that his presence on the mound should instill his backers with confidence.

Pittsburgh's offense is fairly uninspiring. The team averages 4.22 runs per game (20th in MLB) and 4.14 runs per game on the road (23rd). They hold a .305 wOBA (19th) and 92 wRC+ (24th) opposite lefties and strike out at a 26.6% rate (4th-highest) against this handedness.

When Imanaga gets dinged up, there's a pretty good chance it happened via a home run. A towering 64.7% of his earned runs have come via a long ball. The good news? Pittsburgh generates a measly .144 ISO (20th) and 35.5% fly-ball rate (25th) versus left-handers. The team has hit only 137 home runs this season (fifth-fewest in MLB).

This is a soft matchup for Imanaga against a power-resistant team. It doesn't hurt that he walks batters at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Even if a Pirate manages to exploit Imanaga's sometimes sour home-run tendency, there's a decent shot that'd we be looking at a solo homer.

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

Corey Seager To Record An RBI (+130)

Corey Seager has amassed a team-leading 74 RBIs through 123 games for the Texas Rangers. It seems like we're getting a pretty good shake on his RBI odds for tonight, particularly since Seager has the platoon advantage and Texas has a solid enough 4.5-run total.

The left-handed Seager is always down to eviscerate right-handers. He sports a .270 ISO, .561 SLG, 159 wRC+, and a 43.5% fly-ball rate in this split.

Marcus Stroman, Seager's competition for the night, has concerning underlying numbers. While Stroman's 3.81 ERA may look pretty, his 4.85 xERA and 4.85 SIERA prove he has encountered some luck. He allows lefties to produce a .459 SLG and 1.21 home runs per nine innings.

Our daily MLB projections are all over Seager in this spot. They expect him to record 1.15 RBIs in tonight's contest, the top RBI projection among all players.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.