3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Tuesday 9/3/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)

Not many hitters have been seeing the baseball better than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays in recent months. In just the last 30 days, Guerrero has the sixth-best wOBA (.452), fourth-best wRC+ (201), and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (8.0%) against right-handed pitching, and he'll face a below-average righty with Tyler Phillips expected to start for the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday.

Across six starts and one relief appearance this season, Phillips owns a 5.54 xERA, .287 xBA, and 13.2% barrel rate allowed. Phillips is also producing reverse splits on the mound, permitting a .408 wOBA, 1.56 WHIP, and 3.00 HR/9 to righties, compared to a .232 wOBA, 0.89 WHIP, and 0.50 HR/9 to lefties.

Meanwhile, Guerrero boasts a .344 wOBA or better against Phillips' three primary pitches (sinker, sweeper, and four-seam fastball) versus right-handed hitters this year. The form is also fantastic for Guerrero as the hard-hitting first baseman has achieved two-plus bases in six of his last eight contests.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers Over 4.5 Total Runs (+104)

Steven Matz is expected to return to the rotation for the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday, making his first start since April 30th. Through his first six starts earlier this season, Matz registered a dismal 6.26 xERA, .317 xBA, and 13.4% strikeout rate while allowing four-plus earned runs in his previous three outings.

The timing of his return is far from ideal for Matz as the veteran southpaw will square off against the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers on the road. Over the last month, the Brewers boast the 9th-best wOBA (.322) and 10th-best wRC+ (106) versus left-handed pitching.

On top of that, Milwaukee has been scoring runs with ease recently, notching five-plus runs in six of their last seven games. Even if Matz gets a short start or outing upon his return from the injured list, St. Louis' bullpen has the eighth-worst xFIP (4.23) and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%) in the last 30 days.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels

Freddie Freeman to Record an RBI (+115)

Another left-handed starter projected to make a return to the mound following a decent-sized absence is Reid Detmers of the Los Angeles Angels. After giving up three-plus earned runs in eight consecutive starts -- with a 9.7% walk rate and 9.0% barrel rate) -- Detmers was demoted to Triple-A in early June.

Detmers will get welcomed back to the majors by being tasked with trying to slow down the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have the third-best wOBA (.362), fourth-best wRC+ (135), and second-best ISO (.225) over the last 14 days, and Freddie Freeman is a large reason why.

Freeman has been excelling at the plate in recent contests, posting two-plus bases in 3 of his last 4 games with 4 home runs, 10 RBIs, and 4 runs during that span. Despite Freeman not having elite numbers against lefties this season, the experienced first baseman has a .217 ISO or better and .351 wOBA or better versus two of Detmers' three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and curveball) against left-handed batters.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.