3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Tuesday 9/10/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 7.5 Runs (-102)

Two contrasting styles are meeting on Tuesday as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Philadelphia Phillies.

Over the last 30 days, the Rays have the fourth-fewest runs scored while the Phillies recorded the fourth-most runs. Which side will have their way? Will Tampa Bay put its fingerprints on a low-scoring game, or will Philly rake to the over?

Putting Taj Bradley on the mound points to plenty of runs for the Phillies. Bradley has a 9.20 ERA over his last six starts (ouch). He's also posted single-game xFIPs of over 4.00 in four of his last six and over 6.00 in three of the previous six. Philadelphia carries the fifth-most runs above average against four-seam fastballs and the fourth-most when seeing splitters over the last 30 days. Those two offerings are Bradley's most-used pitches.

It's safe to say the Phillies have the tools to contribute to the over, but the Rays are the tricky piece of this puzzle. Ranger Suarez -- Philly's starter on Tuesday -- has a 3.21 ERA over his last three paired with single-game xFIPs of 2.59, 2.44, and 3.39 during that span.

Tampa Bay could do enough for the over, though. The Rays are around the middle of the pack with the 16th-most runs above average against sinkers -- Suarez's most-used pitch. The Rays are also significantly better when facing lefties, touting a .253/.320/.407 slash line, compared to .224/.301/.356 against right-handed hurlers.

numberFire's MLB projections have this game total with a median projection of 9.0 runs, which carries a 67.6% implied probability for reaching at least eight runs. The -102 odds are only a 50.5% implied probability in comparison. Projections are suggesting the over is far more likely than what the odds claim.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Braves Under 4.5 Runs (-140)

A quick glance at MLB's standings would suggest that taking the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves is bold. However, the pitching matchup is there for Washington to hold the Braves to a frustrating day.

MacKenzie Gore will be on the rubber tonight. Atlanta is far from a scary batting order right now, scoring the 13th-fewest runs over the last month. Gore has posted a 3.42 ERA over his previous four games while posting single-game xFIPs of 2.65, 3.36, 3.19, and 1.18 during the span.

Washington's hurler primarily features four-seam fastballs (55.0%), curveballs (19.1%), and sliders (15.1%). Over the past 30 days, the Braves have the 9th-fewest runs above average against four seamers, the 14th-fewest against curveballs, and the fewest when facing sliders.

Another strong start from Gore looks imminent. Give me the under for Atlanta's run total.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

Juan Soto to Record 2+ Total Bases (+110)

The New York Yankees' Juan Soto has had success versus the Kansas City Royals' Seth Lugo, making him a great prop bet target. Soto carries a .333/.500/.533 slash line over 15 career at-bats against Lugo. Plus, Soto owns eye-popping batting averages of .346 against four-seam fastballs and .376 when facing sinkers. You probably guessed it -- these are Lugo's most-used pitches.

Adding fuel to the fire, Soto has finally looked like himself early in September, carrying a slash line of .296/.472/.444, compared to .222/.353/.576 in an unusual August. While Soto's slugging is down this month, he's logged two multi-hit games in September.

Our MLB DFS projections have Soto forecasted for 2.3 median projected bases -- a 66.9% implied probability for reaching two bases (or -202 odds). Not only is the favorable matchup there, but there's excellent value, per our model, here with the +110 odds holding 47.6% implied odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.