3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Thursday 9/5/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Nationals Moneyline (+104)

It'll be Jake Irvin and Bailey Falter squaring off today when the Washington Nationals meet the Pittsburgh Pirates, and that has me leaning toward the underdog Nats.

Irvin has been decent this year, pitching to a 4.04 SIERA and 20.6% strikeout rate. He's been significantly better away from home, holding hitters to a .298 wOBA in his travels, compared to giving up a .342 wOBA at home. In the second half, the Pirates' offense is 24th in wOBA (.297) and has the eighth-highest K rate (25.1%), so this is a really good spot for Irvin.

Falter gets a nice matchup, as well, but he just hasn't been very good this season, recording a 4.86 SIERA and 16.8% strikeout rate. He's been particularly bad in the second half, with hitters racking up a huge .371 wOBA against him in that span.

While Washington's offense isn't anything special, they have some righties who can do damage versus Falter, including rookies Dylan Crews and Andres Chaparro in addition to slugger Juan Yepez.

If you'd rather stay away from trusting the Nats to get a win -- and I get it -- you can pivot to a Same Game Parlay of Crews to get a hit and the Nats to score more than 2.5 runs, which comes out to -138.

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves

Jorge Soler to Record 2+ Bases and Braves Moneyline (+147)

The Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies tonight in the final contest of a three-game set. Atlanta has won the first two games by three runs apiece, and they'll have a good shot to win tonight.

Atlanta has a sizable advantage on the bump as it's Austin Gomber against Reynaldo Lopez.

Gomber owns a 4.65 SIERA and 16.9% K rate. While his numbers on the road aren't quite as bad (4.32 xFIP and 18.4% strikeout rate), Gomber just doesn't have many bright spots in his profile, and the Rox have lost four of his past five outings. Plus, despite all the Braves' injuries, Atlanta's lineup can still swing it, with the active roster ranking 10th in wOBA against southpaws (.320).

As for Lopez, he hasn't been as good as his 2.00 ERA indicates, but his overall numbers -- including a 3.91 SIERA and and 25.4% K rate -- are pretty dang solid.

With the other leg of this Same Game Parlay, Soler catches my eye as he can feast tonight. He's got a .366 wOBA and 57.8% fly-ball rate against left-handers. The success in the split is nothing new as he posted a .442 wOBA, 49.4% hard-hit rate and 57.8% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage in 2023.

He'll likely hit first or second in the order, too, giving him plenty of cracks at achieving at least two bases.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Under 8.5 (-118)

The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers open up a series tonight in Texas. The pitching matchup pits Jack Kochanowicz versus Cody Bradford. That's not eaxactly a headline pitching clash, but I think both starters can be effective today, pushing me to under 8.5 runs.

Let's get this out of the way -- Kochanowicz nearly has a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, and his walk rate is 5.1%. You read that right. The Angels' rookie righty has really struggled to miss bats, producing a laughably low 8.8% K rate through his first 32 2/3 innings. He wasn't much of a strikeout guy in the minors, either, so, yeah, taking the under when one starter has a K rate under 10.0% feels super great.

But what Kochanowicz is elite at is inducing ground-balls, and that trait has carried him thus far, with Kochanowicz's ground-ball rate at 59.9%. That helps him limit homers (0.71 per nine innings this year at Triple-A) and extra-base hits, and his low walk rate keeps the free passes to a minimum. Kochanowicz has found a groove of late, permitting just seven earned runs over his last four starts (25 2/3 innings).

Bradford is basically the total opposite of Kochanowicz -- the Rangers' southpaw gives up a lot of fly-balls (50.0% fly-ball rate this season) but has swing-and-miss stuff (23.7% K rate and 11.1% swinging-strike rate). It's working for Bradford this year as he's been sneaky good, generating a 3.76 SIERA across 56 MLB frames.

In their own ways, each starter is getting it done, and these two offenses are floundering lately, both ranking in the bottom seven in wOBA over the last 30 days. Give me the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.