3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Thursday 9/12/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Kyle Tucker to Record a Hit and Astros Over 3.5 Runs (-121)

The Houston Astros are at home today (2:10 p.m. ET first pitch) and will see right-hander Mitch Spence. I am interested in this two-leg Same Game Parlay.

With Kyle Tucker back in the fold, the Astros now have their two lefty sluggers back in him and Yordan Alvarez. That spells trouble for just about any pitcher, especially righties, and Spence is no exception.

Across 117 2/3 innings this season, Spence has a 4.93 SIERA and 18.1% K rate. He gives up a ton of fly-balls (56.3% fly-ball rate), which could lead to dingers. In short, Houston should go over 3.5 runs, something they're -235 to do.

As for Tucker, he's struggled a bit since coming off the injured list, notching just a pair of hits through 16 plate appearances. But the lefty masher has a long track record of mauling right-handed pitching, posting a gaudy .453 wOBA in this split this season. He's -240 to get a hit.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Tyler O'Neill to Record 2+ Bases (+125)

Tyler O'Neill has been an excellent addition for the Boston Red Sox, and I like him tonight versus southpaw Nestor Cortes.

O'Neill has been stellar overall this year, registering a .377 wOBA and 30 taters with a 46.6% fly-ball rate. For whatever reason, he's been much better away from Fenway, too, producing a .411 wOBA on the road, compared to a .345 wOBA at home.

Where O'Neill really shines is with the platoon advantage, hammering lefties to the tune of a .486 wOBA and 51.3% fly-ball rate.

That puts him in a money spot against Cortes. The Yankees' left-hander isn't bad by any means, but with a 4.08 SIERA and 22.1% strikeout rate, Cortes isn't all that great, either. Righties have a decent .327 wOBA against him, and his K rate is down to just 18.7% in the second half.

O'Neill can do some damage today.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants

Frankie Montas Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)

The Milwaukee Brewers picked up Frankie Montas midseason and have gotten a lot more out of him than the Cincinnati Reds did.

Montas struggled to a 4.80 SIERA and 19.0% strikeout rate with Cincy. Since coming to Milwaukee, the veteran has pitched to a 4.00 SIERA and 25.6% K rate.

It's the jump in punchouts that has my interest for his Thursday date with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have a lot of swing and miss in their lineup and boast the second-highest strikeout rate in the second half (26.6%).

Over his past six starts, Montas has 37 strikeouts in 34 innings and has gone over 5.5 Ks in four of the six outings, including 7 punchouts versus the Atlanta Braves and a 6-K game against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Montas fanned 10 in his last start -- with the caveat that it was a dream home matchup with the Colorado Rockies -- and has clearly found something with the Brewers. He can keep it going tonight against San Fran.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.