3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Monday 9/9/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

Tyler O'Neill To Record An RBI (+105)

It's pretty easy for me to get on board with Tyler O'Neill based on the circumstances. If he's facing a lefty and has decent value odds in the batter props market, I want in.

Luckily, this is the exact situation we find him in tonight. The left-handed Cade Povich will take the bump for the Baltimore Orioles. Povich enters the night with a 5.76 ERA, 5.33 xFIP, and 5.07 SIERA, which is a big part of the reason why the sliding Boston Red Sox are the favorites tonight.

Povich coughs up a .308 BA, .512 SLG, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 1.74 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. This is an awesome matchup for O'Neill, and I've yet to even mention his splits opposite lefties.

O'Neill sports a .379 ISO (second-best in MLB), .690 SLG (third), .458 wOBA (second), 198 wRC+ (third), and a 50.0% fly-ball rate versus southpaws. Past Aaron Judge, you'll be hard-pressed to find a player with as dominant splits as these.

While my heart is telling me to support O'Neill in the home run market, his +285 odds are a bit of a reach for me. He draws a gaudy 16.9% walk rate versus lefties and is a great candidate to hit a sacrifice fly batting cleanup. I'll play it safe and look for O'Neill to bat in a run, something he has done 53 times through 98 games.

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Charlie Morton rarely makes it to the seventh inning and sometimes even fails to get past the sixth. In turn, his strikeout ceiling is naturally hindered.

Even still, I like him to go over his K prop tonight. He comes in with a legit 24.5% strikeout rate and punches out 9.36 batters per nine innings. He's recorded over 5.5 Ks in 15 out of 26 starts (57.7% of contests) and has cleared this mark in five of his last six games. That places intrigue on these -110 odds, which imply just a 52.4% probability.

But much, much more importantly, Morton will throw against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. The Reds strike out at a 24.5% rate (sixth-highest in MLB) and a 24.9% rate versus righties (fourth-highest).

Morton has started 11 games against teams that rank in the top 14 of K% versus righties (23.0% rate or higher). In this split, he is averaging 6.5 Ks and exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in 9 out of 11 games. With that, I'm more than ready to give Morton the nod tonight.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

Cubs Moneyline (+158)

With a dose of hesitancy and a slightly heavier dose of faith, I'll be backing the Cubbies as the road 'dogs tonight.

Kyle Hendricks will be on the bump for the Chicago Cubs. A quick glance at his hard-to-look-at 6.60 ERA could have you questioning why I'm even entertaining Chicago in this spot. However, it hasn't been all disaster for Hendricks, who sports a 4.47 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA.

Plus, if we remove one nightmare outing versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, Hendricks owns a 4.29 ERA since the start of July. He doesn't pitch super long into games, but Chicago's bullpen ranks eighth in ERA and limits opponents to the sixth-fewest home runs per nine innings. The Los Angeles Dodgers will get theirs on offense, and Shohei Ohtani's laughable +196 home run odds speak to his potential, but LAD's starter for the night could run into some pretty big trouble, too.

Walker Buehler returned from Tommy John surgery at the start of May, but an unacceptable performance forced him to the IL due to a hip injury, and later, a solo rehab trip to Florida. Whether or not this was a phantom IL appearance is not for me to say, but he hasn't been looking his best in 2024, posting a 5.67 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 4.67 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP and allowing 2.17 home runs per nine innings.

Chicago's offense has been hot as of late. Across the last 30 days of play, they rank 11th in BA, 10th in SLG, 8th in wOBA, 8th in wRC+, and 9th in ISO. The pitching figures to be sour across the board, though I do believe Hendricks has a slightly better chance at keeping it together than Buehler. numberFire's model hands the Cubs a 48.9% win chance in this one, but these +158 odds imply only a 38.7% probability. It's never fun and not always rewarding to bet against the home Dodgers, but I see too much value in Chicago's moneyline to fade them in this spot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.