3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Monday 9/23/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

The Boston Red Sox, a team that technically has a chance to make the postseason, will kick off a three-game series today against the already eliminated Toronto Blue Jays.

There are a couple of ways I want to back Boston tonight, the first one being Tanner Houck's strikeout prop.

Houck has been a bright spot for the Red Sox in 2024. He's managed a 3.21 ERA (12th-best in MLB), 3.53 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA all while holding opponents to the third-fewest home runs (11) among pitchers who have thrown at least 170 frames.

He has posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career this season but still manages a notable 21.2% K% and punches out 7.98 batters per nine innings. With Houck in a soft matchup against the Jays, I like him to go over his strikeout prop in what could be his final outing of the season.

Houck has exceeded 4.5 strikeouts in 18 out of 29 starts (62.0% of contests), yet these +120 odds imply only a 45.5% probability.

Toronto's offense has been generating a .308 wOBA (15th) and .392 SLG (20th), so they're not exactly tough competition. And while the Jays have managed a low 20.5% K% (seventh-lowest) on the season, they have been striking out at a 21.6% rate since the All-Star break and a 23.3% rate across the last 14 days. This is a pretty middle-of-the-road matchup for a pitcher who has eclipsed the 4.5-K threshold more often than not, so I'm drawn to these +120 odds.

Triston Casas To Record An RBI (+180)

Let's turn to Boston's offense and see if they can give us one last show before heading off into the night.

Triston Casas slammed a whopping three home runs for seven RBIs on Sunday afternoon. On Monday, he'll draw a matchup that could result in more of the same.

Chris Bassitt will be on the bump for the Blue Jays. The northpaw has struggled big-time against left-handed hitters, granting them a .300 BA, .372 wOBA, .474 SLG, 39.1% fly-ball rate, and 1.56 home runs per nine innings through a substantial sample of 80 2/3 innings pitched.

The left-handed Casas has taken care of business when handed the platoon advantage. He touts a .230 ISO, .475 SLG, and 38.6% fly-ball rate in this split. He also sports a 16.0% barrel rate, .214 ISO, and 44.0% fly-ball rate across the last 30 days of play.

Casas is projected to bat fifth in tonight's lineup. Bassitt allows the 12th-highest walk rate in MLB. In turn, Casas has a nice landscape to walk to the plate with runners in scoring position, heightening his chances to knock in a run tonight.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Runs (-130)

To paint a picture of where I stand on the Arizona Diamondbacks' offense tonight, check out our best home run prop bets for Monday, which feature two members (Eugenio Suarez, Christian Walker) of the Diamondbacks.

I'm not totally sour on Hayden Birdsong of the San Francisco Giants. The rookie has commanded a strong 26.0% strikeout rate this season. However, his 4.74 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.54 SIERA aren't as convincing.

Even less convincing? Birdsong has relented a .268 ISO, .505 SLG, 50.7% fly-ball rate, and 2.39 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. It's easy to envision righties Suarez and Walker -- or the switch-hitting Ketel Marte -- exploiting this via extra-base hits.

Arizona's offense has long been unforgiving opposite righties. Their offense sports a .254 BA (fifth-best in MLB), .440 SLG (second), and .335 wOBA (second) versus this handedness.

The D-Backs have also been the hottest offense in baseball of late, amassing a league-high 171 runs across the last 30 days despite being afforded only 27 games in that time (14 teams played at least 28 contests in this span).

It doesn't hurt that Arizona is still playing for something as they are looking to lock down an NL Wild Card spot. numberFire's MLB projections expect the Snakes to tally 5.68 runs in this one. Considering the home run potential for Arizona, I'd consider backing the Diamondbacks over 5.5 Runs at +134 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.