3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Monday 9/16/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs

Brent Rooker To Record An RBI (+160)

Brent Rooker has whacked 107 RBIs (third-most in MLB) through 133 games this season. He's notched at least one ribby in 45.1% of games played, yet these +160 odds imply only a 38.5% probability.

Even though a matchup with Shota Imanaga awaits, I'm bullish on backing Rooker at this price.

Imanaga has been a killer in his rookie season, posting a 3.03 ERA, 3.53 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, and 3.56 SIERA. With that said, he does let up a notable .400 SLG, 46.0% fly-ball rate, and 1.50 home runs per nine innings to right-handed batters. He's by no means impenetrable.

As you can guess, one of the league's top RBI leaders is dominant when handed the platoon advantage. Rooker eviscerates lefties to the tune of a .314 ISO (6th-best in MLB), .600 SLG (10th), 162 wRC+, and 49.4% fly-ball rate (16th).

Lawrence Butler precedes Rooker in Oakland's batting order. Butler owns a shining .409 wOBA since the All-Star break, the eighth-best in the majors. He could set up Rooker for a few RBI opportunities.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Seth Lugo's punchout numbers are a bit inconsistent, but a date with the Detroit Tigers should draw our attention.

On the season, Lugo has produced a 2.94 ERA (sixth-best in MLB), 3.74 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA, and limits opponents to just 0.70 home runs per nine innings.

He shouldn't have much trouble blowing past a Detroit offense that ranks 23rd in wOBA versus righties. Plus, the Kansas City Royals are currently holding down an AL Wild Card spot, so every game matters from here on out. In turn, Lugo seems to be in a decent spot to go long tonight, posing as a green check mark for his strikeout potential in this one.

Lugo enters the night with a 21.7% strikeout rate and punches out 7.88 batters per nine innings. The Tigers, meanwhile, strike out at a voluminous 24.1% rate (sixth-highest in MLB) versus righties.

Lugo has pitched 15 outings against teams that rank in the top 14 of K% versus righties. In this split, he is averaging 6.3 Ks and exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in 8 out of 15 games, missing by the hook twice.

Our daily MLB projections forecast him to log 5.9 Ks in this matchup, so I'll lean with the over here.

Tigers Under 3.5 Runs (+100)

Keeping in line with our pro-Lugo sentiment, let's look for Detroit's offense to fall short of 3.5 runs tonight.

Quite honestly, I was happily surprised that we could not only get Detroit's run line at 3.5 but that we could also grab the under at even money. As mentioned, Lugo owns the sixth-best ERA in baseball and backs it up with awesome underlying numbers. Most importantly, his limiting 0.70 home runs per nine innings ratio (sixth-best in MLB) could prevent the Tigers from hitting anything over the fence tonight. No player on Detroit has shorter than +540 odds to go long in this one.

Lugo and Kansas City's bullpen have limited opponents to under 3.5 runs in 20 out of 30 games, including four of the last five games in this split.

The Tigers rank 23rd in BA, 20th in SLG, 23rd in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, and 19th in ISO versus right-handed pitchers. With that, they seem like an ideal candidate to fall under Lugo's spell of consistently holding offenses to under 3.5 runs.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.