3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Friday 9/6/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles

Rays Over 3.5 Runs (-130)

The Tampa Bay Rays are far from being a reliable offense, with the third-fewest runs scored and the fourth-fewest over the last 30 days. However, they get to face a stumbling starting pitcher in Dean Kremer. He posted a 5.28 ERA over six starts in August, compared to his season mark of 4.51. His single-game xFIP has been over 4.00 in six straight starts, as well.

With the Rays owning MLB's fourth-lowest batting average, getting on base is a constant challenge for Tampa Bay. This is where Kremer's walk rate (BB%) comes into play. He totals 2.2 walks per game this season while sitting in the bottom 27% of BB%. Meanwhile, the Rays hold the eighth-highest BB%; at least this lineup does something right.

Head-to-head matchups also suggest that Tampa's batters are bound for success. For example, Brandon Lowe -- who usually hits second in the order -- has 4 hits over 12 at-bats (.444) against Kremer. Josh Lowe and Christopher Morel are each hitting .400 in small sample sizes of five career at-bats when facing Kremer. The middle of the batting order is projecting well. When you pair that with walks looking likely, now we are cooking.

numberFire's model brings home this pick for us as their MLB projections have the Rays with a median projected run total of 4.4. If correct, this carries a 64.1% implied probability for Tampa Bay scoring at least four runs. That suggests good value in this pick with the -130 odds holding a 56.5% implied probability.

Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals

Bryce Miller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

The Seattle Mariners' Bryce Miller has racked up 38 strikeouts over his previous six starts, good for a per-game average of 6.3 during that span. He's also reached at least five Ks in four of the six starts. But here we are with Miller's strikeout prop set at only 4.5. The over looks like the side to back.

This pick looks even better once you dive deeper into the numbers. For example, the St. Louis Cardinals are averaging 13.0 strikeouts per contest over their last two. St. Louis also carries the 2nd-fewest runs above average when facing four-seam fastballs and the 11th-fewest mark against splitters -- two of Miller's three most-used pitches. The Cards' success against sinkers -- Miller's second most-used pitch -- has drastically dipped over the last 30 days to the tune of -5.2 runs above average (compared to 0.1 on the season).

Miller's length of start could be the biggest deciding factor for this prop. In two of his last six outings, he reached only four Ks, and in both contests, he failed to complete the fifth inning. He finished the seventh inning when coming up with both of his highest strikeout totals (9 and 10) since August.

Fortunately, the Cardinals have reached three runs in only two of their last three. Plus, St. Louis' woes against Miller's top pitches only further point to a quality start. Miller has struggled with hard contact at times, sitting in the bottom 25% of hard-hit percentage allowed. However, the Cards hold the 11th-lowest hard-hit rate on the season.

Our MLB DFS projections have Miller with 5.2 median projected strikeouts, a 59.4% implied probability of reaching five strikeouts. That's still a shade over the 56.5% implied probability held by the -130 odds for over 4.5 Ks.

Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Record an RBI (+155)

At 67-74, the Toronto Blue Jays are firmly on the outside looking in for a playoff appearance. It's a shame because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is having one of the best seasons of his young career. If the Jays were winning this season. Vladdy Jr. could be drawing legit interest in the MVP race.

Just take a look at his slash lines over the last two months; he posted a .358/.407/.705 triple-slash in July followed by .375/.454/.673 in August. Those are absurd numbers, and Guerrero has yet to slow down this month with five hits over nine at-bats (.555) and a 1.111 SLG in September.

Along with the hot streak, the Blue Jays' star is consistently driving in runs, totaling five RBIs over his last five. Of course, much of this has to do with runners being on base. George Springer and Daulton Varsho have been hitting in front of Vladdy. Springer has three hits over his last eight at-bats (.375 batting average) while Varsho is on a three-game hitting streak, batting .308 during the span. Plus, we know Guerrero's slugging has been excellent, adding to his chances for another RBI.

The pitching matchup only provides more confidence. The Atlanta Braves' Max Fried posted a 4.96 ERA over six starts in August. Vladdy also carries a .337/.447/.621 slash line against lefties, compared to .326/.389/.551 when facing right-handers. Guerrero is hitting .326 against four-seam fastballs and .417 when facing curveballs -- Fried's two most-used pitches.

Even down to the batters in front of Guerrero, driving in a run looks like a nice bet. He holds the second-highest median projection for an RBI tonight at 0.90 -- 59.3% implied for one RBI. That's much higher than the 39.2% implied probability held by the +155 odds. Taking Vladdy to knock in a run is my favorite bet of the night.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.