3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Friday 9/27/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB projections and FanDuel Research's MLB DFS projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

Yankees -1.5 (+122)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 3-7 over their last 10 games while logging a measly 2.1 runs per game during the span. Adding to the concern, Jared Jones will be on the rubber tonight against the New York Yankees.

While Jones' 3.75 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 3.85 xFIP initially looks like a green light, he's struggled in recent outings. Since returning from injury on August 27th, Jones has posted a 6.15 ERA over five starts, and he's posted single-game xFIPs that eclipsed 4.00 in four of the five appearances.

Along with the recent struggles, the Yankees are simply a horrible matchup for Jones. He's in the bottom 7% in hard-hit percentage allowed and bottom 11% in barrel rate allowed. New York leads baseball in home runs per game and is racking up 2.4 dingers per game over their last five.

With Jones giving up 2.1 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) and a 18.2% home run to fly-ball percentage (HR/FB) over his last five starts, the Yankees are bound to hit the cover off of the ball tonight.

Additionally, the Pirates have the third-lowest implied total of the night at 3.4, per numberFire. Carlos Rodon has been under his season-long 4.05 xFIP in six of his last seven appearances. This one could get ugly.

Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

Braves Over 4.5 Runs (+122)

We've got more plus odds on deck for the Kansas City Royals against the Atlanta Braves. This one chalks up to two simple ideas: Brady Singer is in a slump, and the Braves have some dangerous sluggers.

Singer is holding a 5.92 ERA over nine starts since August. The advanced stats are checking out over the last four, as well, with single-game xFIPs surpassing 4.00 in three of those games. His HR/FB allowed has jumped to 17.8% during the span, as well.

Atlanta's sluggers are on a tear, averaging 2.6 home runs per game over the previous seven games. That spells trouble for Singer, and he's let up a 19.0% HR/FB when facing right-handed hitters since August. The Braves' home run leader, Marcell Ozuna, swings from the right side of the plate.

numberFire's game projections have Atlanta totaling 4.9 runs, also pointing to the over.

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Our DFS projections are giving Pablo Lopez the highest strikeout total tonight at 7.15. His strikeout total is set at only 5.5 for tonight's matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. If correct, the 7.15 projection holds a 71.8% implied probability to reach at least six Ks. That's suggesting this is far more likely than the -122 odds for the over (55.0% implied probability).

The matchup is there, as well, with the O's logging 8.8 strikeouts per game over their last four. Baltimore's strikeout percentage (K%) has also jumped to 23.7% since the start of September compared to their 22.0% mark for the season.

Lopez's lead pitch is a four-seam fastball (40.9% usage rate). The Orioles have the third-fewest runs above average against this pitch over the last month. Minnesota's ace has also finished the sixth inning in seven of the last eight starts. It's been rough sledding for Lopez as of late, giving up nine earned runs in the last two. Yet, he's still logged single-game xFIPs under 3.50 in four of his previous six outings.

The O's are averaging only 3.9 runs per game over the last 10 games. Lopez has a good shot of completing the sixth inning yet again, increasing his chances for reaching the six-strikeout mark.

All customers get a 25% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay wager on any MLB game happening September 27th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is n\ot eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.