3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Friday 9/20/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Braves -1.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves are still fighting for a playoff spot, sitting two games out of the NL wild card, and while they're running out of time to close that gap, this is a plus matchup for them to get a win versus the Miami Marlins tonight.

Miami will have right-hander Valente Bellozo on the mound, who is a prime regression candidate. Despite coming in with a 3.70 ERA across 11 starts, underneath it lies a 5.46 xFIP and 15.6% strikeout rate, and he's giving up dingers left and right (1.85 HR/9) off a 51.9% fly-ball rate. His Baseball Savant page doesn't inspire confidence, either, as he's got a 5.08 xERA and is eighth percentile or worse in chase rate, whiff rate, and barrel rate.

On the other hand, the Braves will have right-hander Charlie Morton on their side, and the veteran has been solid this season with a 3.91 xFIP and 24.5% strikeout rate. But what should really entice us is his play across his last eight starts, as he's recorded a 3.43 xFIP and 28.8% K rate over that span, allowing 3 or fewer runs in all those appearances.

Injuries have left the Braves with a middle-of-the-pack offense, but they shouldn't have trouble putting up some crooked numbers against a pitcher with such underwhelming metrics. Meanwhile, Morton should be able to put the clamps down on a Miami active roster that has just a 99 wRC+ and .148 ISO against right-handed pitching.

The final piece is a sizable advantage for Atlanta in relief. Their active bullpen owns MLB's best xFIP (3.54), whereas the Marlins rank 25th (4.22).

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

It's been a rough 2024 for Justin Verlander, who looks to finally be nearing the end of the road in his age-41 campaign.

Verlander comes into the day with a 5.24 xFIP and 18.7% strikeout rate, and he's not even suppressing home runs like he used to (1.58 HR/9). He simply isn't fooling batters very often, owning lackluster numbers in both chase rate (16th percentile) and whiff rate (20th percentile).

While this strikeout line wouldn't be a high bar to pass for the old Verlander, he's logged 6+ punchouts in just 5 of his 15 starts this season. Worse yet, he's getting even fewer strikeouts since coming off the injured list in August, recording a 13.0% K rate over his last five starts with totals of 6, 3, 3, 0, and 2 Ks.

That two-strikeout outing came against the Los Angeles Angels most recently, and he'll now have to face these same Angels less than a week later. That familiarity will benefit the opposing batters, and the Halos also saw Verlander in June and held the veteran righty to just three punchouts.

Although Los Angeles' active roster is technically a plus matchup for strikeouts (24.6% versus RHP), Verlander's season-long metrics and recent form all point to the under. He's also unlikely exceed this number through innings volume, as he's gone five frames or below in all five post-IL starts.

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

Royals Over 4.5 Runs (-120)

The Kansas City Royals' bats have a juicy matchup against right-hander Mason Black, who probably hasn't enjoyed his first experience in the Majors a whole lot.

Across seven starts and a relief appearance, Black has been rocked for a 6.71 xERA and 2.24 HR/9. Between an 18.5% strikeout rate, 29.8% ground-ball rate, and 11.7% barrel rate, it's really hard to find many positives in the rookie's profile.

The Royals' active roster is slightly above average against right-handers (102 wRC+), but Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and friends should be able to roll in this matchup.

Kansas City certainly won't be lacking in motivation, either, as they've lost four straight and need wins to make sure they don't squander their wild card spot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.