3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Friday 9/13/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Under 8 Runs (-110)

We've got a battle of bottom feeders on the slate with the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals each losing three of their last four contests. Miami had its way in Game 1 of the four-contest series, winning 6-3.

Unlike the series-opener, I like the under for tonight. Most of this is thanks to the pitching matchup. Miami is putting Edward Cabrera on the mound while DJ Herz will be dealing for Washington.

Cabrera holds a 4.23 ERA over his last five appearances, even with no earned runs over seven innings in his most recent appearance. The Marlins' starter posted single-game xFIPs of 4.59 or higher in three of his last five, as well. While most of this is concerning, we also can't ignore that Cabrera has posted single-game xFIPs of 2.72 and 3.19 in two of his last three.

Additionally, the Nationals' batting order has been much worse against right-handed hurlers over the last month of play. Washington touts a .242/.309/.382 slash line against righties compared to .265/.309/.412 when facing southpaws. The .242 batting average is the 13th-lowest mark in this split while .265 against lefties is the 4th-best mark in baseball. The Nats' strength over the last 30 days is obvious, and it's not against righties.

Moving to Washington's starter, Herz has impressed in his rookie season with a 3.59 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 3.67 xFIP. That's continued over his last four with single-game xFIPs of 3.61 or lower in three of the previous four. Miami has recorded the seventh-fewest runs above average when facing four-seam fastballs over the last month, which is Herz's most-used pitch (54.4% usage rate). Additionally, the Marlins have a slash line of .225/.271/.353 against southpaws over the last 30 days. The .271 OBP is the 5th-lowest mark in the split while the .353 SLG is the 12th-lowest.

Each batting order is also in the bottom half of runs scored in the last month.

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

Josh Naylor to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

Josh Naylor is hitting .282 in September compared to .244 for the season. He's even posted four multi-hit games over the 10-game span. The Cleveland Guardians' first baseman has recorded at least two bases in two of his last four appearances. Give me Naylor to do it again on Friday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Zack Littell will be making the start for Tampa Bay, and Naylor is hitting .500 with a .500 SLG in a small sample size of two career at-bats against Tampa's hurler. In addition, Littell's three most-used pitches are a slider (34.3%), splitter (22.9%), and four-seam fastball (22.1%); Naylor is hitting above his season average against splitters (.263) and four-seam fastballs (.285).

Some of Littell's Baseball Savant numbers cause more worries, such as sitting in the bottom 32% of average exit velocity allowed and the bottom 21% of barrel rate allowed. Naylor carries the second-best SLG among qualifying batters on Cleveland (.462). Littell is already in the bottom 41% of hard-hit rate allowed this season, and it's only gotten worse over the last month.

The Rays' starting pitcher carries a 27.3% hard-hit percentage allowed against righties compared to 31.8% against lefties for the 2024 season. Over the last 30 days. lefties now carry a 36.0% hard-hit rate when facing Littell. As if Naylor's hot streak wasn't good enough, his slugging is also drawing a favorable matchup for tonight.

Our DFS projections have Naylor carrying a median projection of 1.9 bases, which has 56.6% implied odds for recording two bases. There's good value here with the current -105 odds for two bases holding a 51.2% implied probability.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)

Dylan Cease is facing the San Francisco Giants; that should mean a lot of strikeouts, right?

The Giants have the fifth-fewest runs scored paired with the second-highest strikeout percentage (K%) over the last 30 days. Plus, San Francisco has logged at least 14 Ks in two of their last four contests. However, we just saw Cease take the mound against the Giants on September 7th, posting only four strikeouts.

Cease's numbers have dipped over his previous six starts with a 5.01 ERA. The advanced stats check out, as well, with single-game xFIPs eclipsing 5.10 in three consecutive outings. The Giants even tout the 12th-most runs above average against sliders over the last 30 days; Cease's slider holds a 42.8% usage rate. San Francisco's batting order has been dreadful, so sitting in the top half of runs above average against any pitch holds plenty of weight.

The San Diego Padres' starter has finished the sixth inning in only two of his last six. That's still in the cards against the Giants.

Shifting our focus back to strikeout numbers, Cease carries 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) this season -- yet he hasn't reached a 10.0 K/9 in a game since August 6th. He's logged four Ks in three straight starts and has surpassed 6.5 strikeouts in only one of his previous six. Considering the +112 odds, taking Cease to go under his K prop is worth the risk, especially when he recorded only four strikeouts on September 7th against San Francisco.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.