3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 6/27/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Davis Schneider To Hit a Home Run (+430)

It's not every day that we consider the Toronto Blue Jays for a home run prop, but that seems to be the apt direction to turn tonight.

Carlos Rodon will be on the bump for the opposing New York Yankees.

Rodon has delivered some solid starts this season but is prone to blowups. He's surrendered a towering 12 ER across his last 8 2/3 IP and knows how to give up some pop.

Coming into the night, Rodon has ceded a 4.53 xFIP, 1.47 home runs per nine innings, and a 49.5% fly-ball rate (fourth-highest in MLB) to right-handed hitters.

He's allowed 12 home runs in this split, good for the third-most in MLB, so I'm looking at Toronto's Davis Schneider to hit one over the fence.

Schneider has awesome power numbers against lefties. Dating back to last season, he touts a walloping .327 ISO, .574 SLG, 52.9% fly-ball rate, 25.0% Hr/FB ratio, and 153 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers.

He's hit nine home runs in just 101 at-bats in this split, so these +430 odds are worth a nod.

Bobby Witt Jr. To Hit A Home Run (+390)

The Kansas City Royals have a 4.21 implied run total and a matchup that could be grounds for a long ball.

Ben Lively will take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians, and though he's maintained a 3.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, that hasn't stopped him from letting up eight dingers across his last seven starts.

Heading into the night, Lively struggles with a 4.66 xFIP, .472 SLG, 1.62 HR/9, and a 46.0% fly-ball rate against righties. This brings me to Bobby Witt Jr..

Witt is coming into full form in his third season in the majors, owning the third-best batting average in MLB and raking a team-leading 12 home runs. He can hit for power against righties, producing a .547 SLG, .234 ISO, and 44.2% fly-ball rate against this handedness.

He's generating a team-leading 12.4% barrel rate over the last 30 days but has managed just three home runs in that span, so tonight's matchup could be what gets him over the hump.

I'll tack on Bobby Witt Jr. To Record An RBI (+115), too.

Willson Contreras To Hit A Home Run (+340)

Willson Contreras has played only three games since returning from a stint on the IL, but I'm having a hard time fading him in what will be an ultra-friendly matchup against the Cincinnati Reds.

Andrew Abbott will get the ball for Cincinnati, and he's an opposing pitcher we should be targeting for home run props.

The lefty has let up a 4.85 xFIP, .456 SLG, 1.84 HR/9 (third-highest in MLB), and a resounding 52.9% fly-ball rate (highest in MLB) to right-handed hitters.

Abbott has surrendered at least one home run in six straight road games, letting eight total balls fly over the fence in that span. He's ceded the second-most home runs to righties in MLB (13 home runs), so we need to be targeting this split for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Who's the only righty on St. Louis who has consistently mashed against left-handed pitchers? That would be none other than Contreras.

Dating back to last season, Contreras sports a .265 ISO, .568 SLG, 159 wRC+, and 45.4% hard-hit rate versus left-handed pitchers.

While he's yet to record an extra-base hit in 11 at-bats since returning from the IL, this matchup is too encouraging for me to stay off.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.