3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 6/17/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

J.D. Martinez To Hit a Home Run (+400)

The New York Mets visit the Texas Rangers where we could see some offense tonight.

An 8.5 over/under is a good indication the offense should be front and center for both teams, so let's dive into a homer prop.

We'll start with, J.D. Martinez, who is hot at the plate with three home runs over his last five games and has six batted balls over 100 mph in that time.

For the season, Martinez comes in with a 136 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .222 ISO, 43.0% fly-ball rate, 36.7% hard-contact rate, and 14.7% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

He'll be up against Jon Gray, who is due for some negative regression versus right-handed hitters. Gray has allowed only 0.27 HR/9 to righties, however, he has a 38.0% fly-ball rate and 37.9% hard-contact rate.

If we look at the league average versus right-handed hitters this season, it's at 1.04 HR/9, 37.7% fly-ball rate, and 30.7% hard-contact rate.

His fly-ball rate is right on par with the average but he's allowing more hard-contact, but way fewer home runs. That simply doesn't add up and should point to Gray allowing more home runs as the season goes on.

I'll add, Martinez To Record an RBI (+140), too.

Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+320)

A game at Coors Field always brings the potential for homers.

With absolutely beautiful hitting weather at Coors Field and a bit of wind blowing out to right field, the ball should be flying tonight.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have plenty of power in their lineup and it's often about finding home runs odds that are worth betting, which is what brings me to Teoscar Hernandez tonight. His odds are about the lowest I'll generally look for a home run prop.

This year, Hernandez comes in with a 128 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .199 ISO, 36.8% fly-ball rate, 33.1% hard-contact rate, and 18.0% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

Over his last 50 plate appearances, Hernandez has the 11th-highest xwOBA increase in the league. He's locked in at the plate and is now set for a solid few games at Coors Field.

He's up against Cal Quantrill, who allows a .365 SLG, 4.60 xFIP, 0.87 HR/9, and 33.8% fly-ball rate versus righties.

With a sky-high 6.70 implied run total, the Dodgers should be scoring runs early and often tonight.

Daulton Varsho To Hit a Home Run (+450)

Finally, we head north of the border where the Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox.

The Sox will have Nick Pivetta on the bump tonight, a pitcher we can certainly target for some homers.

While Pivetta has a solid 26.4% strikeout rate versus lefties this season, he also allows a .372 SLG, 1.69 HR/9, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.2% hard-contact rate.

When he gets hit, he gets hit really hard and it puts a few of Toronto's hitters in a favorable spot.

We'll turn to Daulton Varsho, who comes in rocking a 115 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .266 ISO, 62.2% fly-ball rate, and 13.5% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

This is why we've seen him hit 10 of his 11 home runs in this split, making it the clear time to target his home run prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.