3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 5/24/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Kerry Carpenter To Hit a Home Run (+560)

With a favorable matchup for some power, the Detroit Tigers could knock a few home runs tonight.

The Tigers are set to face the Toronto Blue Jays, who will have Alek Manoah on the bump tonight. After some time in the minors earlier this year, Manoah is back with the Blue Jays and off to a mediocre start.

Manoah has allowed a .487 SLG, 2.79 HR/9, 42.9% fly-ball rate, and 42.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. It's always a dangerous mix to have a high fly-ball rate along with allowing a lot of hard contact, which leads me to Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter has massive splits and is only in play when he's up against a righty, which we have with Manoah tonight. This season, Carpenter has a 162 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .293 ISO, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and 14.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.

This has led to Carpenter being in the top 91st percentile or higher in xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel rate this season, per Baseball Savant. It's a great matchup for Carpenter to show off that power against a struggling righty.

Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+480)

With some extra wind blowing out to center field, we could see a few extra homers when the Texas Rangers visit the Minnesota Twins.

Seeing wind around 14 mph blowing out to center is a big boost to hitters and given the fact the Rangers have a ton of power in their lineup, it's an obvious spot to target.

They are up against Bailey Ober, who comes in allowing a .438 SLG, 1.42 HR/9, 50.7 fly-ball rate, and 40.3% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters. That type of fly-ball rate with this wind is playing with fire, so we'll turn to Marcus Semien for a homer.

He's rocking a 96 wRC+, .307 wOBA, .168 ISO, 40.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. These numbers are a bit lower compared to what he did last season with a 126 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .219 ISO, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.1% hard-contact rate in the same split.

Semien has all of the tools for a homer, and he just has to put them on display.

Tyler O'Neill To Hit a Home Run (+370)

Finally, we'll look to Tyler O'Neill of the Boston Red Sox.

O'Neill has plenty of power, and when we pair that with a favorable hitter's environment such as Fenway Park, there's clear potential for a homer.

This season, O'Neill has 109 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .250 ISO, 50.7% fly-ball rate, and 23.5% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Sprinkle in a bit of wind blowing out to right at Fenway Park, and we have all the makings of a big offensive night.

He's going up against Bryse Wilson, who has struggled this season against righty hitters to the tune of a .333 SLG, 1.17 HR/9, 4.18 xFIP, 37.5% fly-ball rate, and 35.9% hard-contact rate.

It's all good news for O'Neill, who has hit 8 of his 11 home runs against righty pitchers this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.