3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Friday 4/12/24
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.
Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Home Run Props
Jonathan India To Hit a Home Run (+430)
A loaded slate of games to end the week and there are several spots to consider for some home runs tonight.
The main point about tonight's slate is how many games are going to be impacted by wind. There are several stadiums with big wind blowing out, which presents a clear boost for hitters.
We start with the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Chicago White Sox, where we see 15-20 mph wind blowing out to center field. Last year, Guaranteed Rate Field was the second-best stadium in the league for home runs, making this a juicy spot for some power tonight.
Add in a bad pitcher with Chris Flexen and it's a dynamite spot for Jonathan India.
Last season, Flexen allowed a .625 SLG, 5.74 xFIP, 3.04 HR/9, 39.5% fly-ball rate, 37.1% hard-contact rate, and 22.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters. Those are some bad numbers to begin with and they look that much worse given the park factor and the wind.
As for India, he had a 108 wRC+, .175 ISO, 41.0% fly-ball rate, and 33.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. I love everything about this matchup, so I'll add India To Record an RBI (+145), too.
Tyler O'Neill To Hit a Home Run (+330)
Next up, Tyler O'Neill, who is on fire to start the season.
O'Neill has six homers to begin the young season and with 20 mph wind blowing out to left at Fenway Park tonight, we could be staring down home run number seven.
Last season, he finished with a 120 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .212 ISO, 38.5% fly-ball rate, and 40.4% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Those are dream numbers to have at Fenway Park with the short wall and when we sprinkle in some wind, it's a no-brainer to consider.
He'll be up against Reid Detmers, who allowed .373 SLG, 4.06 xFIP, 0.98 HR/9, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus righty hitters.
Keep things simple with this matchup and I'll add O'Neill To Record an RBI (+135), too.
Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+430)
Finally, another wind spot with the Kansas City Royals visiting the New York Mets.
Citi Field might not be the ideal hitter's park on paper but with winds out to left center at 15 mph, we're going to be interested tonight.
Luis Severino will be on the bump and he ended last season with a .500 SLG, 4.48 xFIP, 2.23 HR/9, 35.4% fly-ball rate, and 30.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
This brings me to Salvador Perez, who was solid versus righty pitchers last season with a .175 ISO, 41.5% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate. He's got some great batted-ball data to start this season but only has two home runs, which is always a good indication he's due for some power. I'll add Perez To Record an RBI (+140).
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.