3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 9/4/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Bobby Miller is pitching today, making for a sensible spot to target home runs.

Miller hit the IL in early April due to right shoulder inflammation and has made seven intermittent starts since returning. He didn't have his stuff prior to his IL stint, and he hasn't had his stuff since.

On the season, Miller has produced a 7.25 ERA, 6.54 xERA, and a 4.77 SIERA through 44 2/3 IP. He's coughed up a .562 SLG and 2.38 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. Miller has let up at least one long ball in nine straight starts dating back to his second outing of the season. More recently, he has ceded seven home runs across his last four starts.

He's a guy we should be willing to bet against right now, and Taylor Ward of the Los Angeles Angels presents us an opportunity to do just that.

Ward has been generating a 14.1% barrel rate, 42.3% fly-ball rate, .239 ISO, and 131 wRC+ across the last 30 days of play. He's smashed 20 home runs this season, 17 of which have come against right-handed pitchers. I'm also excited that Ward produces a massive 48.2% fly-ball rate opposite righties (11th-highest in MLB), making him a great candidate to round the bases in this matchup.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+460)

I love the odds we are getting on Gunnar Henderson's home run prop.

Henderson has smashed at least one home run in 23.9% of games this season, but these +460 odds imply only a 17.8% probability. We are getting awesome value here straight-up, regardless of matchup.

But once we add in that Henderson will have the platoon advantage against a weak thrower tonight, his stock in the home run market skyrockets.

Jonathan Cannon will be on the bump for the opposing Chicago White Sox. He comes in with a 4.60 xERA, 4.81 xFIP, and 4.91 SIERA. The righty coughs up a .226 ISO, .510 SLG, 38.4% fly-ball rate, and 1.68 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters.

Henderson, meanwhile, belts right-handed pitchers with a .274 ISO (ninth-highest in MLB) and .562 SLG (eighth). He rode the struggle bus midway through this season but comes into this one amid a four-game hit streak. He's also notched five RBIs in his last three games, including one home run and one double. Henderson seems to be getting his power back, so I want to attack his perhaps longer-than-should-be home run odds in what will be a friendly matchup.

Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+700)

Since July 7th, only Aaron Judge (19) has hit more home runs than Eugenio Suarez (17). That's some pretty good company.

So, why do Suarez's home run odds for the night sit at lofty +700 odds? After all, he's been one of the league's top home run hitters for a couple of months now and owns an invigorating .340 ISO and 48.6% fly-ball rate in that aforementioned span. Plus, he's managed a fair enough 10.7% barrel rate, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and .286 ISO across his last 30 days of play.

I think these +700 odds are short-selling Suarez's potential, so I'm keen on taking advantage of them.

Hayden Birdsong will be on the bump opposite Suarez. He enters with a 5.14 ERA, 4.66 xERA, and 4.36 SIERA through 49 frames. The rookie has surrendered a .268 ISO, .512 SLG, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 2.42 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. Our abridged sample on Birdsong does make him seem worse than reality, but that fly-ball rate allowed is intriguing, especially when put up against the domineering 46.8% fly-ball rate that Suarez mashes northpaws with.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.