3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 8/28/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Triston Casas to Hit a Home Run (+520)

There's a good chance a lefty from the Boston Red Sox is taking Chris Bassitt deep on Wednesday. The right-handed starter for the Toronto Blue Jays is permitting a .361 wOBA, 1.52 HR/9, and 40.4% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters, compared to a .290 wOBA, 0.49 HR/9, and 33.7% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters.

While Jarren Duran (+560) isn't a bad pick for a homer, there's reason to believe Triston Casas could see improvement in the power department soon. Casas is seeing the ball well with multiple hits in 6 of his last 10 games while hitting 2 homers during that span.

Since returning from a stint on the injured list on August 16th, Casas is sporting a .479 wOBA, 213 wRC+, and .241 ISO. And if you were to go back to the beginning of last season, Casas has a .225 ISO or higher against Bassitt's two primary pitches (sinker and cutter) versus left-handed batters.

The only concern with taking Casas to hit a home run is the fact he has just a 20% fly-ball rate since he returned to the lineup. That being said, his lack of lift in the baseball could be aided by Bassitt allowing the 4th-highest hard contact rate (46.6%), 14th-highest fly-ball rate (49.3%), and 28th-worst HR/9 (1.7) among starting pitchers with 20-plus innings in the last month.

Ezequiel Tovar to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Could we see another mini power surge from Ezequiel Tovar? Tovar hit two homers on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins, and the last time we saw him hit multiple homers in a game -- which was on July 14th -- he went on to hit a homer in his next two contests.

The shortstop for the Colorado Rockies boasts the 8th-highest hard contact rate (47.6%) and 12th-highest fly-ball rate (56.1%), and after facing Roddery Munoz on Tuesday, he'll get to face another righty from the Marlins that is giving up plenty of homers. Max Meyer is expected to make his 10th start for Miami, and he's sitting in the first percentile in barrel rate (14.3%) and hard-hit rate (49.0%) while he's surrendered multiple home runs in three of his last five starts.

Meyer is struggling to both sides of the plate, but righties are registering a 2.16 HR/9 and 40.5% fly-ball rate against him while lefties are posting a 2.11 HR/9 and 32.4% fly-ball rate. You could likely make an argument for a few players on the Rockies to take Meyer deep as playing at Coors Field likely won't help the young hurler get on track for the Marlins.

The weather also favors Tovar as the temp is expected to be approaching 90 degrees and winds are blowing out in Colorado on Wednesday. Even though Miami's bullpen hasn't been absolutely atrocious recently, they are giving up the 6th-highest hard contact rate (35.1%) and 13th-highest HR/FB rate (11.8%) in the last 30 days.

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+460)

Walker Buehler has experienced arguably his worst season as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers as he's logging career-worst marks in SIERA (4.76), xFIP (4.72), strikeout rate (16.9%), swinging-strike rate (7.1%), and barrel rate (7.2%) through 10 starts in 2024. In addition to that, Buehler is in the 7th percentile in xERA (5.28) and 10th percentile in xBA (.278) entering a home matchup versus the Baltimore Orioles.

While Gunnar Henderson has deservedly gotten praise for the season he's had for the Orioles, Anthony Santander has the third-most homers (38) in baseball, putting him only behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Even though Santander has cooled off recently, Buehler's splits against lefties are extremely concerning.

Up to this point, Buehler has given up a massive .450 wOBA, 2.11 WHIP, 2.21 HR/9, and 44.0% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Santander owns a .347 wOBA, 129 wRC+, .282 ISO, and just a 17.4% strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitchers this season.

Having a pair of home runs in his last 12 games isn't for a lack of trying as Santander still has a .261 ISO and 61.8% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days of action. Santander is likely going to put the ball in the air if he makes contact, and the Dodgers' bullpen is registering the ninth-highest fly-ball rate (40.6%), eighth-highest HR/FB rate (15.2%), and eighth-worst HR/9 (1.5) in the last month, which is notable with Buehler failing to pitch beyond five innings in five consecutive outings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.