3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 8/21/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Corbin Carroll to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Anytime Roddery Munoz is on the bump for the Miami Marlins, it's wise to check the home run odds of the opposing batters. Ahead of his 16th start of the season, Munoz ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.55) and eighth percentile in xBA (.279) in large part due to an inflated 13.3% barrel rate and 45.2% hard-hit rate.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are the next team to square off against Munoz, and Corbin Carroll is a notable hitter who has been heating up at the plate. Carroll is producing the 12th-best ISO (.357), 20th-best SLG (.643), and 4th-highest hard-contact rate (50.9%) with a formidable 47.3% flyball rate among hitters with 50-plus plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

Backing any lefty from the Diamondbacks to take Munoz deep is understandable as the right-handed hurler from the Marlins is permitting a .674 SLG, 3.71 HR/9, and 49.1% flyball rate versus left-handed hitters. Even when Munoz -- who has given up multiple homers in 7 of his 15 starts -- exits the contest, Miami's bullpen has surrendered the sixth-highest hard-contact rate (33.0%) in the last month of action.

Carroll's recent form also makes him an ideal target to hit one deep as he's launched a home run in 3 of his last 5 games while totaling 5 long balls across his last 10 contests. Amid an impressive stretch from the reigning National League Rookie of the Year, Carroll is in a premier spot to continue his recent dominance against Munoz and the Marlins.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+340)

It has been home runs galore for Juan Soto recently as the talented lefty's last seven hits for the New York Yankees have all been homers. While accruing those seven home runs in his last eight games, Soto has two multi-homer performances during that span.

With Soto seemingly going yard nearly every time he makes contact with the baseball, his chances of going deep are high ahead of a meeting with left-handed starter Joey Cantillo of the Cleveland Guardians. In a small sample of 13 innings pitched, Cantillo has given up an inflated .641 wOBA, 7.71 HR/9, and 58.3% flyball rate to left-handed hitters.

Lefty-on-lefty crime is not a rare occurrence for Soto as the All-Star in pinstripes is sporting a .426 wOBA, 181 wRC+, .295 ISO, and .583 SLG against southpaws in 2024. Of the hitters with 20-plus plate appearances versus left-handed pitching in the last month, Soto has the 8th-best ISO (.526), 16th-best SLG (.763), and 15th-highest hard-contact rate (48.6%) with a solid 47.1% flyball rate in that split.

As mentioned in my MLB Same Game Parlay piece, I like Soto and Aaron Judge to perform well today. The only concern with backing Soto is that Cantillo has issued three walks in two of his first three starts while Soto owns an 18.9% walk rate versus lefties this year. At the same time, Soto gets an added bonus with winds expected to be blowing out to right field, which happens to be where the short porch is located at Yankee Stadium.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+400)

What year is it again? The Los Angeles Angels are going to be trotting out a 38-year-old Johnny Cueto on Wednesday to make his first start since September 27th of the 2023 campaign.

Throughout his 10 starts and 3 relief appearances for the Marlins last season, Cueto logged a 47.5% flyball rate, 10.6% barrel rate, and 2.92 HR/9. Those dreadful metrics puts quite a few hitters from the Kansas City Royals in a prime spot to hit a home run, beginning with Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt is amid a 9-game hit streak that includes 3 homers during that span, and he's totaled 5 long balls over his last 11 outings. Over the last month of the baseball season, Witt boasts the second-best ISO (.434) and second-best SLG (.855) among batters with 50-plus plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Kauffman Stadium isn't an ideal park for hitting homers -- it has the seventh-lowest home run park factor among MLB stadiums in 2024 -- but Witt excels in front of the Kansas City faithful with a .321 ISO and .726 SLG at home, compared to a .211 ISO and .510 SLG on the road. Along with Cueto making his first start of the season, the Angels' bullpen has surrendered the seventh-highest hard contact rate (32.6%) and second-highest flyball rate (44.0%) over the last 30 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.