3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 8/14/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+390)

You won't find many sluggers more dominant against right-handed pitchers than Rafael Devers.

Devers enters Wednesday with a .324 BA (third-best in MLB), .676 SLG (third), .352 ISO (third), and 41.9% fly-ball rate opposite northpaws. He's smashed 21 home runs (seventh-most) against this handedness. With Devers heading into a matchup against the right-handed Dane Dunning of the Texas Rangers, I love him to go long.

Dunning has been lackluster with a 4.77 ERA and 5.18 xERA in 2024. He allows lefties to hit for a .527 SLG and 45.9% fly-ball rate. Further, he coughs up 2.39 home runs per nine innings to left-handers, which is the third-highest HR/9 ratio in MLB.

Now, Dunning hasn't been going long in games, throwing 38 pitches or fewer in five of his last eight contests. But Devers should be guaranteed at least one at-bat opposite the struggling righty. Plus, Texas' bullpen is lacking, so I'm keen on backing Boston's slugger to go long.

Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Jose Berrios is pitching today, making for a clear spot to target home runs. Berrios has let up a resounding 26 home runs this season. Only Kutter Crawford has given up more long balls (27) in MLB.

He's been specifically vulnerable on the road, allowing opponents 2.44 home runs per nine in the split. Even more pressing? Since May 7th, Berrios has been slammed with 2.19 home runs per nine on the whole and a troubling 3.48 home runs per nine on the road.

Angel Stadium, the ninth-friendliest home run park in baseball, might not be forgiving. Enter Zach Neto, a member of the Los Angeles Angels who has been scorching at the plate.

Across the last 30 days of play, Neto has managed a 10.4% barrel rate, 47.8% hard-hit rate, 43.1% fly-ball rate, and .253 ISO. He's been heating up even more over the last 14 days with a 16.2% barrel rate, 59.5% hard-hit rate, 49.5% fly-ball rate, and .347 ISO.

While the righty-on-righty matchup isn't perfect, Berrios hardly discriminates based on handedness, and Neto has slammed 14 of his 17 home runs in this split.

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Marcell Ozuna has been generating a 17.2% barrel rate, 42.2% fly-ball rate, 51.6% hard-hit rate, and .316 ISO across the last 30 days of play.

He's hit nine home runs in this stretch but hasn't deposited a ball over the fence since Saturday. He could be due tonight.

Ozuna will get a go at the left-handed Robbie Ray of the San Francisco Giants. Luckily, Atlanta's power hitter touts awesome splits against lefties. Ozuna has mashed southpaws with a .333 BA, .552 SLG, and .219 ISO.

Ray has been somewhat proficient in four starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, at least given the circumstances. He's struck out a massive 28 batters in just 20 1/3 frames. However, he's also let five balls fly over the fence in this span. This is nothing new for Ray, who surrendered 1.66 HR/9 and a 42.3% fly-ball rate to righties in 2022, his most recent fully healthy season.

It doesn't hurt that the wind is blowing straight out in San Fran.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.