3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Tuesday 9/3/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+330)

We've seen Pete Alonso launch two home runs over his last five games. Will the New York Mets' home run leader come up with another one against the Boston Red Sox tonight?

Kutter Crawford will be the hurler on the mound, and he gave up six dingers over six appearances in August. His home-run-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB) isn't too bad at 12.6% for the season. However, his fly-ball rate has jumped from 50.7% to 59.4% over the last month.

This is where Alonso could be a big problem for the Sox. He's already tied for the 17th-highest HR/FB among qualifying players (18.6%), and this has spiked to 28.6% over his last month of play. Pair this with Crawford's fly-ball percentage rising, and we could see the Polar Bear record his 31st dinger. Alonso also hits above his season average of .240 against Crawford's two most-used pitches -- the four-seam fastball and cutter.

FanDuel Research's daily projections have Alonso with the second-highest median projected home runs at 0.38. If correct, this holds an implied probability of 31.6% to hit one homer (or +216 odds). Alonso's +330 to launch a big fly holds a 23.3% implied probability. The matchup and value is there to back the Mets' slugger.

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The Los Angeles Angels are bringing up Reid Detmers for a start tonight against three months in Triple-A. While his 4.07 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 4.15 xFIP suggest Detmers is a lot better than his 6.14 ERA, he's walking into one of the worst possible matchups for a reintroduction to the big leagues.

The Los Angeles Dodgers tout the fourth-most runs scored paired with the third-highest wOBA in baseball. Teoscar Hernandez flourishes against southpaws with a slash line of .308/.370/.609 compared to .256/.322/.456 when facing righties. The difference in slugging is worth highlighting.

Detmers is in the bottom 41% in average exit velocity allowed and bottom 26% in barrel rate allowed among qualifying players. He gave up eight dingers over his last six starts in the majors and even surrendered four taters over his previous six appearances in Triple-A.

Hernandez nearly hit for the cycle in his most recent game, amassing three singles, one double, and one triple. The home run could come tonight in his advantageous matchup against Detmers.

Teoscar is carrying an implied probability of 26.7% (or +275 odds) to hit one dinger tonight. That's solid value with the +350 odds holding a 22.2% implied probability.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Per usual, the New York Yankees' batting order is full of home run choices. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto hold two of the three highest median projections to hit a long ball tonight. I'm going with the latter for today.

The Texas Rangers are playing host with Andrew Heaney on the mound. He's in the bottom 31% in average exit velocity allowed, the bottom 45% in barrel rate allowed, and the bottom 39% in hard-hit rate allowed. Heaney has given up four big flies over his last five, as well.

Heaney heavily leans on his four-seam fastball with a 52.7% usage rate, and Soto is raking to the tune of a .351 batting average when seeing this pitch. His slugging is still solid against lefties at .553.

Additionally, Soto carries the fifth-highest HR/FB among qualifying players. This has increased to 31.1% over the last 30 days. Plus, we've seen Heaney's HR/FB allowed go from 9.9% to 13.3% over the last month.

Soto has 6 hits over his last 18 at-bats (.333), and his median projection for a dinger has a 30.2% implied probability compared to the 21.7% implied probability of the +360 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.