3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Tuesday 8/27/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+400)

If it weren't for Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. would be leading in nearly all metrics against right-handed pitching over the last month of baseball. Witt has the second-best wOBA (.507), wRC+ (233), and ISO (.425) versus righties in the last 30 days while also registering a 43.5% flyball and hard contact rate during that same span.

The talented shortstop for the Kansas City Royals is also in fantastic form with two long balls in his last three contests. It's also worth mentioning that Witt performs better against right-handed pitching as he is logging a .430 wOBA, 179 wRC+, and .280 ISO in that split (compared to a .396 wOBA, 156 wRC+, and .223 ISO versus lefties) ahead of a matchup with righty Gavin Williams.

Williams ranks in the 27th percentile in xERA (4.52), 22nd percentile in xBA (.263), and 19th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.4%) through his first 10 starts of the campaign for the Cleveland Guardians. Additionally, Williams has reverse splits with a .359 wOBA, 1.65 WHIP, and 1.35 HR/9 allowed to right-handed bats, compared to a .318 wOBA, 1.32 WHIP, and 0.66 HR/9 to left-handed bats.

To improve our case even further for a Witt homer, Williams also has worse metrics at home, permitting a .419 wOBA, 1.98 WHIP, and 1.53 HR/9 at Progressive Field. With winds blowing out in Cleveland -- and six homers being hit in the first two games of the Royals-Guardians series -- Witt has a solid chance to hit one deep as long as Williams' 8.9% walk rate doesn't throw a wrench into our plans.

Michael Toglia to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Putting Roddery Munoz in Coors Field seems like a perfect recipe for home runs. Munoz resides in the first percentile in xERA (6.57), ninth percentile in xBA (.278), first percentile in barrel rate (13.1%), and eighth percentile in hard-hit rate (45.0%), which has resulted in an inflated 2.55 HR/9 across 81.1 innings of action.

Whenever Munoz is on the bump, the ball tends to be in the air often as he is registering a 45.4% flyball rate to match his other putrid numbers. Lefties are doing more damage against Munoz with a .440 wOBA, 1.78 WHIP, and 3.65 HR/9, putting Michael Toglia of the Colorado Rockies on our radar.

Nearly a third of Toglia's hits this season are of the home run variety as 21 of his 64 hits have left the park. Toglia has been hitting the ball hard in the last month versus right-handed pitchers, accruing a 45.5% hard contact rate, 54.5% flyball rate, and .286 ISO in that split during that span.

While Toglia does strike out often (32.9% strikeout rate against righties), he does possess a .294 ISO or higher against Munoz's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, and sinker) versus lefty bats. Considering that Munoz has pitched five or fewer innings in seven straight outings, it's worth noting that the Miami Marlins bullpen has the 5th-highest hard contact rate (35.1%) and 11th-highest HR/FB rate (12.1%) in the last 30 days.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+340)

The only reason Shohei Ohtani doesn't have odds under +300 are because the Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to face left-handed starter Cole Irvin on Tuesday. But when you consider that Irvin hasn't made it to the fifth inning in nine consecutive appearances for the Baltimore Orioles, it's tough to ignore Ohtani at these odds.

Even though Ohtani crushes righties, he is still posting a formidable .345 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and .209 ISO versus southpaws in 2024. Ohtani loves facing Irvin as five of his eight career hits against him are extra-base hits (with two homers).

As for Irvin, the left-handed pitcher sits in the fourth percentile in xERA (5.74), second percentile in xBA (.296), and second percentile in barrel rate (12.6%). Irvin is also posting a 5.3% walk rate, so there is less concern about him walking Ohtani out of the leadoff spot.

Along with Irvin not pitching deep into games, Baltimore's bullpen has been atrocious in the last month, allowing the seventh-highest flyball rate (41.1%) and worst HR/9 (1.9) during that sample. Regardless of whether it's against Irvin or the Orioles' relievers, Ohtani gets a slight boost with winds expected to be blowing slightly to right field at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.